According to the latest market report provided by the well-known steel spot trading platform “Nishijin Shinkansenâ€, the “good†steel market from “energy saving and emission reduction†in September has clearly come to an end. Although domestic crude steel production has declined, the signs of the resumption of production by some steel mills have already appeared. North China also has a tendency to go south. The supply pressure in the latter part of the East China market may increase, and the “increase†of the dominant steel mills is also weakening. In October, construction steel prices face some downward pressure.
According to monitoring, the trend of Shanghai's construction steel prices in September can be described as "ups and downs", which is quite spectacular. In early September, under the influence of "energy-saving and emission-reducing sprint," the tonnage of construction steel rushed from 4000 yuan to 4,400 yuan in one fell swoop, and in less than 10 days, the increase reached a staggering 10%, setting a new high for the year. However, due to the lack of sustained good support, coupled with short-term "floating surplus" is too large, the demand is difficult to follow up in a timely manner, "high" only maintained for 2 days and then turned down, fell back to 4260 yuan price within 10 days, the decline It reached 31.8%. Subsequently, Shanghai's construction steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range between 4250 and 4300 yuan.
Relevant market analysts believe that from the sales data from the early August to early September, the sales level of the steel market basically meets the expectations of the release of traditional demand, and the downstream demand has a certain performance, but there is no abnormal volume. "The signs are. Traditional experience shows that in the coming October, the terminal procurement level should still be at a certain height, but “intermediate trade†may be cautious and the overall demand release may be “steady downâ€.
On the supply side, due to the impact of “energy-saving and emission-reducing sprintsâ€, the actual supply of some steel mills has been reduced some time ago. However, since late September, the number of remanufactured steel plants has increased significantly. "This means that late-stage inventory and supply pressures may re-emerge." At the same time, it is worth noting that with the widening of the spread between the North and the South, the trend of “Northern Goods to South†will become more apparent in the later period, which will also increase the supply pressure in the East China market.
Judging from the iron and steel raw materials market, the iron concentrate market is relatively stable in most parts of the country, with slight fluctuations in some regions. The import ore market continued to decline slightly, with poor transactions. Some small and medium-sized traders appeared to be throwing goods due to financial pressure, but the relevant quotations had not yet fallen sharply and remained in a downward trend. Affected by the reduction in iron ore imports from China, the shipping market has been unilaterally declining recently, and freight rates on several major routes have dropped.
Relevant market participants said that so far, the "golden ninth" steel market consumption is expected to be reflected. The next "Silver Ten" how to perform, there is a certain degree of repeatability, it is estimated that the overall level of sales is difficult to September. The price of raw materials is still in the down channel as a whole, and there is limited support for steel prices in the short term. The ex-factory price and market price of steel mills currently also exist in the “upside-down†space ranging from RMB 100 to 300 per ton. There is still room for further decline in the ex-factory price of the dominant steel mills in the later period.
In addition, the recent restatement and strengthening of the property market regulation policy will also have a certain impact on the steel market. In consideration of various factors, domestic construction steel prices in October have a certain risk of a correction, and the price of ton may fall back to 4,000 yuan.