Steel has been in a slump for a week. Yesterday the stock market steel plate rose strongly, the market price of steel has failed to seek a breakthrough, whether the continuous decline of steel futures means that the January rebound has come to an end?
According to industry insiders, rebar is the type with the smallest increase in rebound rate in this round of rebound. Compared with the previous high level of 4900, the gap is very large and the current overall price is low. The trend of rebar is closely related to the Chinese economy. At present, the market outlook is still lacking obvious positive factors. It is expected that the rising inventory will further suppress the formation of steel prices, and the possibility of falling steel prices is higher, but the decline is limited.
Steel fell after another
Since the rebar main contract of 1101 hit a stage low of 4042 points in mid-July, the rebound has continued for a full month. Since last week, the period of steel fell for several days in a row, and it seems that the wave is to end.
The main rebar 1101 contract opened lower at 4249 yuan/ton in the morning. Under the pulling of the stock market, the period steel saw a strong rally in the morning. After a fierce battle between the long and short sides in the afternoon, the bulls still have no advantage. Near the end of the main reel steel suddenly dive, and finally closed at 4238 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day's settlement price fell 34 yuan or 0.8%. At the close of trading, the open positions were 1999438 hands and 1131506 lots, respectively, which shrank significantly from the previous trading day. The main wire rod contract opened lower in October, closing at 4343 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.11%.
Iron and steel stocks are not moving during the upswing
Yesterday the steel plate was in a strong trend. The steel plate topped the rise of 2.34%, ranking the first in all kinds of sectors. Only 38 stocks closed lower. Among them, Songshan and Shougang shares of Shunde Steel were both at their daily limit. The steel sector performed amazingly throughout the day, and steel products not only failed to gain a boost, but closed lower. Analysts from New Lake analyst explained that the stock market and the steel market both focus on industry profits and the pursuit of spreads, and the two are related, but the degree of correlation is not great.
The stock market's soaring failed to drive the steel futures to close, indicating that the upward momentum of the steel market is insufficient. “Shougang’s daily limit was yesterday due to news that the company had to enter the auto market. This is a somewhat exaggerated daily limit.†Huang Huiwen, Shanghai mid-term analyst, further pointed out: “The steel stocks soared yesterday, although there was a certain boost for the steel market. , but the space for rebar rise is still not open, and the upward momentum is obviously insufficient."
The stock market's boost to the steel is limited, coupled with the current lack of clear positive information in the steel market, multiple reasons to stimulate steel prices lower. Huang Huiwen pointed out that from the macro-message point of view, the employment data released by the United States is not ideal, and the domestic regulation and control of real estate has increased significantly, which has limited the further rise of the period steel.
High inventory is expected to suppress steel prices
Under the expectation of high inventory pressure, steel futures will continue to maintain a low consolidation. Industry insiders pointed out that many steel companies will raise their inventories in August, and the market's confidence in the futures market will also be affected. The post-market steel will consolidate within the range, and there is little room for downside.
According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in August, the steel association's crude steel unit was 14.13 million tons. The estimated crude steel production in the country was 17.19 million tons, and the daily production was 141.3 and 1.719 million tons respectively, which was the average daily output in the second half of July. The increase of 29,000 tons and 77,000 tons respectively shows that the steel mills are rapidly resuming production as market prices rebound. “In the early stage, the resumption of production of steel mills led to a rise in steel prices, and after the increase in the ratio of remanufactured steel mills in the later period, the inventory of steel products will also increase. High inventory will cause pressure on the rise of steel,†Huang Huiwen pointed out. The solution also indicated that high stocks have been falling for three consecutive months. In August, the steel mills will resume production and stocks will increase again. The price of steel will certainly be affected. At present, there is a need for adjustments in the capital market, and downward pressure on the price of steel.
The trend of rebar is closely related to the Chinese economy. From the fundamental point of view, the lack of incentives for steel prices to rise will require downward adjustment in the short term, but the reduction rate will not be too great. "In this wave of rebound, the rebound of steel is the smallest of all varieties, and the increase is around 300 yuan. In the short term, the market needs to absorb and absorb. At present, the price of the steel is approaching the spot price, so the market will not change too much. Big, it will maintain a range of between 4150 and 4250."