Analysis of Foreign Chemical Market Development Status in 2012

Since 2012, although the domestic market is still facing high pressures such as rising costs of raw materials, labor, transportation, and the global economic downturn, the domestic chemical market is still rapidly eliminating the haze of 2011, facing the improvement of the domestic situation, the international chemical market 2011. What happened in Year 2012 and 2012?

France's chemical industry output increased by 4.5% year-on-year in 2011

The National Chemical Industry Alliance announced that the French chemical industry absorbed 3.5 billion euros in investment in 2011, an increase of 4.5% from the previous year. Strong demand in the Asian and US markets is an important support for the stable growth of the French chemical industry. The French government has actively promoted the innovation and development of the chemical industry, actively researched and developed chemical products adapted to the markets of emerging countries, and at the same time studied and solved the possible environmental pollution in the production and sale of chemical products, and achieved positive results.

In 2011, the output value of the French chemical industry was 77.1 billion Euros, of which organic chemicals, pharmaceutical chemicals, minerals, special materials, and daily necessities accounted for 35.4%, 3.6%, 13.2%, 21%, and 26.8%, respectively. Ranked fifth in the world after China, the United States, Japan, and Germany. The chemical industry employs 172,000 people.

At present, French chemical companies have less inventory pressure. Thanks to the market demand for steel, automobiles and bulk consumer goods, it is expected that the French chemical industry will maintain stable production in 2012 and will not fall to the level of 2008. However, the decline in the prices of some chemicals and the weakening of re-investment capacity of related chemical manufacturers may affect the long-term development of the chemical industry.

German chemical industry hopes to develop strongly in 2013

The German Chemical Industry Association VCI anticipates that the overall production of the industry this year will be the same as the previous year, with a turnover growth of only 1%. By 2013, production will increase by 2-3%. According to data released by VCI, the German chemical industry production in 2011 increased by a total of 2.2%: In the first two quarters of last year, it was relatively strong, and it declined significantly by the end of the year, falling by 4.3% in the fourth quarter. The industry’s turnover for the year totaled 184.2 billion euros, and the number of employees was 427,000.

According to UCI Tillmann, VCI Director General, the industry has bottomed out at the end of last year and will improve in the coming months. He said that there was no backlog in corporate inventories and customer orders increased, but the industry in the first quarter of this year did not reach the level of the same period last year. VCI believes that the European debt crisis will not evolve into a financial crisis. The biggest challenge this year is the adjustment of Germany's energy policy. The chemical industry needs energy supply protection, and renewable energy cannot achieve this far.

US chemical demand will increase by 2% in 2012

In 2012, the demand for chemicals in the United States will increase by 2%, of which the demand for specialty chemicals will increase by 3.4%, the demand for consumer chemicals will increase by 2.5%, and the demand for other chemicals will maintain the growth rate of 0-2%. The slowdown in the recovery of the manufacturing industry is curbing the domestic demand for chemicals in the United States. However, the current level of chemical inventory in the United States is relatively low. Even a weak economic environment can support the growth of chemical production.

Exports will remain the biggest driver of the development of the US chemical industry, especially basic chemicals. U.S. chemical exports were stimulated by rising demand in overseas markets, weak US dollar, and favorable oil and gas price ratios. According to the ACC forecast, in 2012, the surplus of US chemicals excluding pharmaceutical import and export trade will increase by 8.8% to US$47.2 billion. Among them, the surplus of basic chemical import and export trade will increase by 6% to 37.3 billion U.S. dollars, which is mainly stimulated by the substantial increase in the production of low-cost natural gas.

By 2016, the U.S. basic chemical import and export trade surplus will reach 54 billion U.S. dollars, a substantial increase of 50% over 2009.

In 2012, the output value of the US chemical industry will reach US$814 billion, an increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of chemical plants will reach 72.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points; the export of chemicals will reach US$0.7 billion, an increase of 6%; and the import of chemicals will reach 2016 billion. The US dollar rose by 4.7%; R&D investment will reach US$59.65 billion, up 4%; capital investment will reach US$31.53 billion, up 7.3%.

Kevin Swift, chief economist of the American Chemical Industry Council’s ACC, pointed out recently that global chemicals production is expected to increase by 3.6% in 2012 due to the possibility of a recession in Europe. He stressed that emerging economies will become bright spots in the depressed market. In 2012, the demand for chemicals in emerging markets will increase by 6.2%, which is higher than 5.4% in 2011. In sharp contrast, after undergoing a cyclical rebound in 2010, the growth rate of the chemical industry in developed countries will fall to 2% per year from 2011 to 2012.

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