Analysis of Market Changes and Economic Operation of Machine Tool Industry in 2015 (I)

[Before the Compilation] At the 7th Executive Director (Extended) Meeting of the 7th China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association held on December 23, Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of the Association, made a speech entitled “The Machine Tool Industry Market Changes” And economic operation analysis report, comprehensive national and industry statistics and customs import and export data, expounding recent market changes and economic performance, making basic estimates for next year's situation, and sharing with the entrepreneurs present. Some views on the future of the industry. This article has abridged.
In 2015, the market and economic operation of the machine tool industry entered the downward channel. In the fifth year, compared with previous years, the industry suffered a downward pressure with a greater intensity and a wider range. The overall situation is more severe.

Market changes and basic characteristics in 2015
Since the global financial crisis, the domestic machine tool consumption market and the industry's economic operation have experienced a ups and downs, which is called ups and downs.
The changes in the consumer market for metalworking machine tools have experienced a period of rapid growth in 2010 and 2011, as well as a period of stagnant growth and continued decline since 2012.
Among them, the change process of the metal cutting machine tool consumer market is basically the same as that of the Jinjia machine tool, but the change is even greater.
The change process of the metal forming machine tool consumer market is different, which is roughly manifested in three different stages, namely, the rapid growth phase in 2010 and 2011, the steady growth phase in 2012-2014 and the significant decline phase in 2015.
The process of change in the measurement and consumption market is roughly in three stages, namely the high-speed growth phase in 2010 and 2011, the basic stabilization phase in 2012-2014 and the significant decline phase in 2015.
In general, the essential characteristics of market changes are structural. “The total demand has been significantly reduced, and the demand structure has been accelerated.” Taking the gold cutting machine with the most obvious market changes as an example, the reduction in quantity is also structural. Specifically, we can generalize the main direction of market demand structure upgrade to three aspects, namely, automated set, customized order and general shift upgrade.

Industry economic performance in 2015
2015 is a year in which the whole industry is under greater downward pressure, and it is also a very difficult year in the development of the industry. Compared with the overall downturn of previous years , the industry's economic operation in 2015 also showed the following new features: the decline has been widened again, the downside sector has expanded, the domestic and foreign trade has declined, and the profitability of the whole industry has continued to deteriorate.
First of all, from the perspective of industry production and sales scale, the decline in the economic performance of the industry in 2014 has been greatly narrowed. It is estimated that the number of tools will fall by 4.8% year-on-year, the first negative growth in six years (in 2009, the growth rate was -22.8%).
Secondly, from the perspective of the downside, the industry downturn in 2015 has affected almost all industries (except for abrasives only).
Third, from the market target, the industry downturn in the past few years is mainly in the domestic market, but the export market has also maintained a growth trend, but this situation has changed in 2015. From January to October 2015, except for the CNC system, the export of the other seven sub-sectors of the whole industry was negative. It is estimated that the annual export of metal processing machine tools will decline by 8.8% year-on-year in 2015, the first negative growth in 6 years (-33% in 2009); the annual export of construction tools decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, also the first negative growth in 6 years (2009) The annual growth rate is -14.2%).
Finally, from the perspective of industry profit levels, due to the economic downturn for several consecutive years, the operating conditions of some industrial enterprises have tended to deteriorate.
Incidentally, among the many factors affecting the economic operation of the industry in 2015, the changes in the output of domestic automobiles and smart phones have had a significant impact on the economic downturn of the industry.
A comprehensive analysis of the basic situation of next year's situation, comprehensive analysis of various aspects, especially the 2016 political work guidelines and policy ideas determined by the Central Political Bureau meeting and the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference, combined with the characteristics of the machine tool manufacturing industry, we The basic estimate of the industry development expectation in 2016 can be summarized into two sentences, namely, “the positive prospects are promising and the transformation pressure is increased”. A brief analysis is as follows:
1, good prospects can be expected
The central link of China's macroeconomic regulation and control over the years has been to grasp the rough balance between steady growth and structural adjustment. Since the end of last year, although the reform measures for structural adjustment are still being introduced continuously, with the continuous downward pressure on the economy, especially the continuous decline of the real economy, steady growth has become the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control.
While the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, the structural contradictions of the economy have become more prominent, and the risks of economic operations have also increased significantly. The current situation is that due to the widespread overcapacity in manufacturing and high real estate inventories, investment demand is seriously insufficient, and the continued sluggish investment will inevitably lead to further downward pressure on the economy, which makes the contradiction of overcapacity more prominent. .
In the context of widespread overcapacity, the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, which focus primarily on expanding demand, have been very limited, and in this case, further stimulus demand may make the problem worse. Therefore, it is necessary to re-recognize the main contradictions of the Chinese economy at this stage and moderately adjust policy ideas. Recently, the introduction of structural reforms on the supply side has attracted widespread attention and positive response at home and abroad. The Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference also made specific arrangements to seize key points and fight annihilation. Among them, the machine tool industry is closely related to overcapacity, lowering enterprise costs, and digesting real estate inventory. The above measures are the specific grasp of the supply-side structural reform.
2. Increased transformation pressure
2016 is not only a key year for industry restructuring, but also a year for the whole industry to face greater downward pressure. At least two factors support this estimate. One is the actual trend of the national economic operation, and the other is the macro next year. Regulatory policy orientation.
One of the distinguishing features of the machine tool manufacturing industry is its close relationship with fixed asset investment. In recent years, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment has shown a continuous downward trend. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society has been declining since 2010. The low level of investment growth is the most direct cause of the low speed of the machine tool industry. Stable growth must be stable investment. The most urgent task is to curb the momentum of sustained decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment. To achieve this goal, we must effectively curb the rapid decline in the growth rate of manufacturing and real estate investment, and regain its growth momentum.
We must note that the proposal of the structural reform task on the supply side marks a major adjustment in the economic thinking of the decision-making level and the focus of work. This will inevitably bring many changes at the policy and operational levels. We must also see that there may be some new highlights in the market in 2016. For example, the implementation of the strategy of going global and the Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure construction projects such as the construction of railways in the central and western regions will first drive the market recovery of high-speed rail and electric power (including nuclear power) equipment; for example, driven by the demand-side policy in October, this October. The production and sales volume of automobiles has rebounded remarkably. The production and sales volume in November has reached a record high, and new energy vehicles have grown rapidly. There is also the State Council’s December 2 proposal for the full implementation of ultra-low emission and energy-saving renovation of coal-fired units by 2020, all of which are more accurate. The industrial policy will inevitably drive the growth of market demand in the corresponding fields.

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