The price of steel in the early months of September under the influence of the power curtailment policy, there was a wave of rapid rises, but it was followed by a 'yin fall'. The steel factory prices did not fall, and the traders’ prices did not fall sharply. Many businesses are actively selling ** before the holiday and are cautious about the market outlook. With regard to the issue of the post-holiday price trend, Nishimoto even had two totally different views before the holiday, which led to active discussion. Today, after the long holiday has passed, whether it is an upswing or a downswing, the author believes that the post-holiday domestic steel market is still worth looking forward to. The steel price will likely usher in a wave of rise.
On the evening of the 7th, Shanghai opened a new regulation on the regulation of the property market, stopped the purchase of third homes and above, and imposed a land value-added tax based on different sales prices with a pre-recruitment rate of 2% to 5%. . Shanghai real estate tax or will be piloted, combined with the promulgation of the new real estate control policy on the 29th show that its suppression efforts are in line with market expectations, so there is little pressure on the disk.
In terms of **, on Oct. 8th, the thread 1101 opened higher and opened at 4262 yuan/ton, after the opening opened, it tends to rise steadily. At the same time, after the National Day, the terminal needs to make up the inventory, the overall steel demand is still a certain degree of protection, the overall market price is expected to get rid of the Yindie trend, but also an important driving force for steel prices stop rising.
From the perspective of demand, the state stipulates that 30% of affordable housing projects that are not under construction must be started before the end of September, and will be started one after the other. There will be a wave of demand release. After the National Day holiday, there will be a group of construction sites that have been waiting and watching since the previous steel price instability. HSBC China announced that China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index for September reached 52.9%, and returned to the 50% threshold. The overall judgment of domestic steel demand after the holiday period will increase compared with September.
After entering October, local traders gradually consumed low-cost steel resources in July and August, and high-value steel resources settled in September began to be sold in large quantities. Traders’ willingness to continue shipping at low prices will be significantly reduced from September. There is also the end of the Expo, and the demand for Shanghai, which has been suppressed, will also be released.
Taken together, due to better overall economic operations, steel prices will usher in a wave of upswings in the short-term. However, in the long run, the uncertainty in real estate control efforts and the construction of affordable housing remain to be observed. The market outlook should not be too optimistic.