Foreign media comment: the cost of excess storage of mineral resources in China

For decades, China has always believed that the global market may not be able to meet China's demand for natural resources and is worried about it. But now they face the opposite problem: traders are storing excess iron ore, copper, coal and other metals and mineral resources in previously abandoned warehouses, parking lots and barns. These people bought these resources by chance and prepared for the continued expansion of the economy, only to find that this expansion did not come. Ugh! Sometimes, Western countries do not want to obtain resources at certain times and from certain locations, so the Chinese use this opportunity to extract resources and become more and more skilled. However, don’t take this kind of courage. Be a wise move. China's growing mining investment overseas is not profitable, and it has also led to excess resources. This unprofitable and overcapacity cannot be said to be two sides of a coin, but more like two different sides of a dodecahedron, reflecting the fact that the Chinese government has arbitrarily refused to believe in the market price of anything. A simple example of iron ore can be given. According to Reuters last month, the inventory of iron ore was one-third higher than the average of the past four years. Although the stocks have declined slightly from the date of the report to the present, the total amount is still considerable. This is a very significant change compared to previous years. At that time, the price of iron ore in China, which seemed to be unsatisfied, was still high, and the government was still worried about it. Marie Kloppers, BHP's chief executive, has appeased the Chinese government to say that even if the old system of cartel-style price negotiations eventually went bankrupt, the global spot market could provide enough resources. Does anyone still remember this? If China could think a little about this suggestion at the time, then it might be able to see the opportunity at a high spot price. Over the years, planners have been eager to push for consolidation in China's steel industry, but with little success. In general, rising input prices will be a driving force for the industry to move toward consolidation. If you don't believe it, look at what happens to the US aviation industry when it faces high fuel and labor costs. Instead, the government has relaxed credit and helped steel producers reduce the impact of rising iron ore prices on them to avoid being eliminated. At the moment, the situation of oversupply of finished steel is becoming more and more serious, and the situation of producers is deteriorating. However, the Chinese government still plans to invest 20 billion US dollars in steel producers through the latest stimulus plan. At the same time, China is still slashing billions of dollars in uncontrolled production of overseas iron ore. These investments, no matter how useful they are in terms of securing supply (there are few answers), will not have much impact on the global price of iron ore, as most of these investments go to the mining of existing iron ore, rather than Invest in exploration projects that increase production. This means that the government will suffer losses because the global price of iron ore has reduced the profits of these investment projects. There is also copper. Despite the slowdown in economic growth this year, copper imports have increased by about 70%. According to recent photos taken by investment bank analysts, these imported copper were eventually piled up in bonded warehouses, high and eaves, which not only blocked the door but also occupied parking spaces. This degree of “accumulation” is totally out of proportion to China’s “consumption”. The so-called "consumption" means that copper really entered the furnace and was put into use as a copper wire or copper pipe. Although the level of consumption is currently at a certain level, there is still controversy. However, as China's economic growth slows down and the government is suppressing the overheated real estate market, copper consumption is likely to decline. But the piles of copper in the warehouse are not waiting to be made into copper pipes. They are collateral. When the government tried to curb the bank's credit creation by formal means, companies that urgently needed funds had to use imported goods as a means of financing. They operate like this. Chinese companies buy copper in dollars and then store them in bonded warehouses. After the warehouse issued a certificate confirming that the copper did exist, the company used the certificate as collateral in exchange for a RMB loan (approximately 85% of the copper price). The US dollar credit became a renminbi credit and successfully circumvented the government's tightening measures. This explains why copper prices tend to rise when China tightens monetary policy, and there is a tendency to decline when monetary policy is relaxed. This situation is the opposite of the actual use of copper. Of course, when the Chinese government relaxed its policy to lower the bank deposit reserve ratio, traders began to export the remaining copper as a financial instrument. If you can get a loan through normal channels, there is naturally no reason to mix up with metal-related troubles. The original sin is that the Chinese government is determined not to allow the market to price capital. In terms of fund allocation, once credit quotas, administrative orders, and political relations replace market interest rates and fair risk assessments, various small moves naturally emerge in an endless stream. At the moment, copper oversupply is one of the results. So when the Chinese government tried to stimulate the economy by increasing the liquidity of the banking system, an abnormal effect appeared: loose monetary policy prompted the price of copper to fall. This has led to the squeezing of small companies that have earned some profits under normal conditions (monetary policy has become loose and led to rising copper prices). They have obtained loans through mortgages, but they have found that their collateral is depreciating and the loans are being The risk of recovery is also increasing. These piles of idle resources have recently been used as a case for Chinese buyers to make a mistake in predicting demand for goods. This is certainly good, but the "why" behind the error points to a more complex issue. This is not the kind of business judgment mistake that every company in the market economy will make from time to time. In the market, anyone can misjudge the future, but in contrast, the current excess of mineral resources is the result of the Chinese government's long-term blindness to the “present” reflected in the price signal.

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