Business Club September 23 September 20th, China Chemical Network released the “fluorite-fluorine industry chain market analysis and forecasting†report, starting from September with the arrival of the traditional demand season, and oversold rebound In the market cycle, there are upward conditions for the prices of multiple products. However, the production capacity of some products, including hydrofluoric acid, is obviously excessive and is expected to hover around the 10,000 yuan/ton cost line.
Last week, prices of R134a, aluminum fluoride, fluorspar, and hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and R22 rose slightly.
The market has stable conditions Since this year, R22 prices have rapidly increased from 21,750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 30,000 yuan/ton, but prices have continued to fall since May and have fallen to around 17,000 yuan/ton in early September.
Currently R22 is both a substitute for ODS and an important raw material for organic fluorine chemicals. At present, the total production capacity of R22 in China has reached 700,000 tons. According to relevant plans, no new capacity has been added before 2013.
China Chemical Network analysis believes that the maintenance of some manufacturers in September, the reduction in production will support the R22 price, the price will remain stable in the short term. In the long run, the demand for R22 will continue to grow, and since the annual demand of PTEE and R125 will also maintain a growth rate of around 15%, this will inevitably reduce the supply of R22 as a raw material among them.
As of the end of 2010, China's R134a had a total capacity of approximately 175,000 tons, with a production volume of approximately 60,000 tons. The total production capacity reached 189,000 tons in 2011, and China has become an important global producer.
China Chemical Network analyst Zhang Li believes that the relocation and conversion of foreign production capacity to stimulate the production of new equipment in China, increased supply is the main reason for the decline in R134a prices. However, the possibility of a substantial decline in the latter part is very small, mainly due to the cost support of upstream hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene and the immature replacement of R134a.
Zhang Jianjun, vice president of Sinochem Lantian Chemical Research Institute, said that due to the rapid price increase, the capacity expansion of R134a, R125, and R32 began rapidly in 2011, and the product price has fallen by half from its highest point. A new round of investment will lead to production capacity. excess.
An expert from the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry believes that the volatility of hydrofluoric acid and HFC series (including R22 and R134a) will be more volatile because of the expected 2-3 The supply of HFC increased rapidly during the year.
The fluorite price center may be at 2,500 yuan/ton. From January to August this year, the price of fluorite rose by more than 70%, continuing the trend of continuous rising in 2010. Only in July, the changes in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and fluoride salt markets and the corresponding squeeze in profit margins caused a slight decline in the price of fluorite. The recent mainstream price is about 2,800 yuan/ton.
With regard to the future trend of fluorite prices, experts from the above-mentioned Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry believe that this year will see an overall upward trend; prices will fluctuate sharply in 2012 and may reach a peak of 3,500-4,000 yuan/ton during 2013-2014; It may be a slight shock. The price of fluorite in the next few years will be around 2,500 yuan/ton.
He said that from the perspective of supply, the significant increase in the price of fluorite has caused a substantial increase in investment. It is expected that the supply of fluorite will face an inflection point in 2013; from the demand side, the total capacity of hydrofluoric acid downstream of fluorite is 700,000. Ton, only adding another 100,000 tons will change the demand for fluorite. According to the current industrial policy, the cumulative increase of 100,000 tons of production capacity needs to be 2105 years, and the overall expansion cycle is longer. At the same time, under the influence of fluorite integration expectations and exchange rate changes, fluorite prices will generally fall within the above basic trend framework.
Last week, prices of R134a, aluminum fluoride, fluorspar, and hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and R22 rose slightly.
The market has stable conditions Since this year, R22 prices have rapidly increased from 21,750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 30,000 yuan/ton, but prices have continued to fall since May and have fallen to around 17,000 yuan/ton in early September.
Currently R22 is both a substitute for ODS and an important raw material for organic fluorine chemicals. At present, the total production capacity of R22 in China has reached 700,000 tons. According to relevant plans, no new capacity has been added before 2013.
China Chemical Network analysis believes that the maintenance of some manufacturers in September, the reduction in production will support the R22 price, the price will remain stable in the short term. In the long run, the demand for R22 will continue to grow, and since the annual demand of PTEE and R125 will also maintain a growth rate of around 15%, this will inevitably reduce the supply of R22 as a raw material among them.
As of the end of 2010, China's R134a had a total capacity of approximately 175,000 tons, with a production volume of approximately 60,000 tons. The total production capacity reached 189,000 tons in 2011, and China has become an important global producer.
China Chemical Network analyst Zhang Li believes that the relocation and conversion of foreign production capacity to stimulate the production of new equipment in China, increased supply is the main reason for the decline in R134a prices. However, the possibility of a substantial decline in the latter part is very small, mainly due to the cost support of upstream hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene and the immature replacement of R134a.
Zhang Jianjun, vice president of Sinochem Lantian Chemical Research Institute, said that due to the rapid price increase, the capacity expansion of R134a, R125, and R32 began rapidly in 2011, and the product price has fallen by half from its highest point. A new round of investment will lead to production capacity. excess.
An expert from the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry believes that the volatility of hydrofluoric acid and HFC series (including R22 and R134a) will be more volatile because of the expected 2-3 The supply of HFC increased rapidly during the year.
The fluorite price center may be at 2,500 yuan/ton. From January to August this year, the price of fluorite rose by more than 70%, continuing the trend of continuous rising in 2010. Only in July, the changes in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and fluoride salt markets and the corresponding squeeze in profit margins caused a slight decline in the price of fluorite. The recent mainstream price is about 2,800 yuan/ton.
With regard to the future trend of fluorite prices, experts from the above-mentioned Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry believe that this year will see an overall upward trend; prices will fluctuate sharply in 2012 and may reach a peak of 3,500-4,000 yuan/ton during 2013-2014; It may be a slight shock. The price of fluorite in the next few years will be around 2,500 yuan/ton.
He said that from the perspective of supply, the significant increase in the price of fluorite has caused a substantial increase in investment. It is expected that the supply of fluorite will face an inflection point in 2013; from the demand side, the total capacity of hydrofluoric acid downstream of fluorite is 700,000. Ton, only adding another 100,000 tons will change the demand for fluorite. According to the current industrial policy, the cumulative increase of 100,000 tons of production capacity needs to be 2105 years, and the overall expansion cycle is longer. At the same time, under the influence of fluorite integration expectations and exchange rate changes, fluorite prices will generally fall within the above basic trend framework.
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