Li Jinyong, president of the China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce and Chairman of China Shipping Tongchuang Group, is a veteran of the automobile circulation industry. He has not only served as the general manager of a large group, but now also operates several new energy vehicle brands. A few days ago, when he was interviewed by the media, he predicted: "The sales of new energy vehicles in China will not exceed 1.5 million in 2019. It is not bad with last year!"
His judgment scared me! In the past two years, although the Chinese auto market has been stalling, the new energy auto market is still recognized as a bright spot. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume was 360,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%. Many experts are also full of confidence in their expectations this year, full of expectations, how will they suddenly fall into "zero growth"?
So, I started to call the car manufacturers and dealers. Based on various aspects, I found that the probability of this possibility is still quite large, mainly for the following two reasons:
First, the subsidy accelerated to retreat. As we all know, the new energy vehicle market has been a typical “policy city†in recent years. The reason why it can grow high is mainly due to high subsidies. After June 25 this year, the subsidies will be greatly degraded. The local subsidies that have been supplemented by the state and the land will be reduced by about 75%, and only the places where the state is subsidized will fall by about 50%. Before the end of March, due to rumors that subsidies had to fall sharply, many people robbed a hand, resulting in a record sales of 126,000 vehicles in the month, which increased sales in January-April by nearly 60%. However, this effect is also declining, although the subsidy in the three-month transition period is still about 70%, but sales in April have dropped, only 97,000, which is expected to be lower in May.
Even worse, the subsidy policy will directly lead to the "sprint performance" at the end of this year is no longer copied! In the past, due to fears that the subsidies will fall sharply in the coming year, manufacturers and distributors will work together in the fourth quarter to put all kinds of cars into the market in advance. For example, in the last three months of 2018, the sales volume was 138,000, 169,000 and 225,000 respectively. The vehicle accounted for 42.3% of the total sales volume of 1.256 million vehicles. At the end of this year, the space for subsidies to retreat is already small, and everyone will definitely not go to the momentum again. As a result, the “sprint performance†will be gone, and the annual sales volume will undoubtedly be greatly reduced!
Second, the fuel price war has led to a significant decline in the competitiveness of new energy vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, fuel vehicles have played a round of price wars, especially the switch from the national five to the national six, resulting in a model of seven, eight percent or even lower discounts abound. As a result, the competitiveness of new energy vehicles is greatly reduced. In the past, 60% of new energy vehicles were private users on the C side. For them, buying a fuel car now may be a better choice. Of course, 40% of the B-side taxis, customers of the network car will also be affected, they will weigh the overall cost performance.
It seems now that the price war of fuel vehicles will not stop in the short term, and it will not be sustainable in the second half of the year. If you continue, customers of new energy vehicles will switch to fuel vehicles in large quantities.
However, I believe that if there is a "zero growth" situation, the relevant government departments should take the shot. Otherwise, how does this performance allow the relevant departments to explain?
How to shoot? There are three such "tools" in the "toolbox": First, let the new target of the restricted purchase city only buy new energy vehicles, which will immediately increase sales. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have decided to increase the numbering index appropriately, and the specific policies have not yet come out, but I estimate that new energy vehicles will benefit. In the next few cities, if similar policies are introduced, it is expected that new energy vehicles will be mainly considered. Second, the network vehicles are only allowed to use new energy vehicles. Now there is still room for growth in the network. If it is stipulated that new vehicles can only use new energy vehicles, it is also absolutely beneficial. Third, taxi renewal is only allowed to use new energy vehicles, and speed up the pace. This will be a big increase for new energy vehicles.
However, the earlier these three "tools" are used, the greater the probability that the new energy vehicles will increase in total sales this year. If they are used again in December, the predictions of President Li Jinyong will most likely become a reality.
Therefore, here I suggest that automakers pay close attention to the movements of relevant government departments, and adjust their strategies to make early preparations so that they can get more “policy dividends†at the first time!
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