June OPEC meeting is expected to increase production of 1 million barrels / day international oil price "bull bear" shift

Recently, the sentiment of international oil prices has a "bull-to-bear" meaning. The United States "retreat" the Iranian nuclear agreement triggered a tight supply of sentiment, which once pushed the oil price to a high level of three and a half years, but the good times are not long, Concerns about oversupply have recently surfaced. With the approach of the OPEC meeting on June 22, the parties to the agreement on production reduction will discuss the news of resuming production frequently, suppressing oil prices, and the volatility will rise. Market increases crude oil shorts According to the latest report of Bloomberg News on June 5, the "outsiders" US calls for the OPEC organization to increase crude oil production by 1 million barrels per day. After the news, the oil price dipped, Beijing time on June 5, as of the deadline, Brent crude oil futures fell below 74 US dollars, reported 73.87 US dollars / barrel, a drop of 1.89%; WTI crude oil futures fell 0.74%. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in public on May 25 that Saudi Arabia has reached a basic agreement with Russia. The two sides believe that it is time to release production. It is more likely to occur in the second half of this year. The output is 1 million barrels. /Day or not to wait for the June meeting to discuss. "On June 22, the main focus was to discuss whether to increase production to fill the decline in supply in Venezuela and Iran. In the short term, the news should push up the fluctuation of oil prices. If the announced increase in production is lower than market expectations, then the price of oil will be there. If there is more room for rebound, then it is likely to continue to fall at the current level.” Wang Yijie, Director of Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered China Wealth Management, told the 21st Century Business Herald. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Algeria and the oil ministers of Oman, a non-OPEC member country, held an informal meeting in Kuwait last weekend, but did not release clear information. “Because the meeting did not provide further clues, investors increased their short bets on crude oil after the opening of the market this week, causing US oil to fall below the technical support of US$65.50 and then fall further to a two-month low. Brent crude oil futures also fell below the $75 mark, pointing to last week's low." Industrial Investment (UK) commented on June 5th. The change in “smart money” crude oil futures positions reflects a shift in market sentiment, although crude oil longs still far exceed the shorts, but more willing to cool down. According to a report released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on June 1, the speculative net long position of crude oil fell by 25,558 contracts to 607,828 contracts in the week ended May 29. "Brent crude oil fell from $80 to $75, partly reflecting the market's view of ample supply. The market for this year's market was technically off, from $60 in February, basically all the way up to mid-May. The $80, but looking at the recent situation is that the long positions continue to decline, reflecting the bulls are continuing to do high positions." Wang said. According to the latest survey of analysts, oil companies and shipping records released by Bloomberg News, the output of OPEC oil producers in May was 31.9 million barrels per day, which was basically the same as in April, and the output in April was The lowest in a year. Since the agreement on production cuts, OPEC and other countries that are reducing production are discussing whether to resume production. At present, the two major oil-producing countries of Saudi Arabia and Russia have released signals of intention to resume production to fill the reduction of production in Iran and Venezuela. However, there are still differences within the State party, and some countries tend to continue to raise oil prices. Oil prices drive US shale oil production . On the other hand, the continued growth of US shale oil production has long limited the upside of oil prices. Despite the recent decline in US crude oil inventories, production continues to grow. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on June 1, US crude oil production increased by 44,000 barrels to 10.769 million barrels per day during the week of May 25, showing growth for 14 consecutive weeks. Production in March reached 10.47 million barrels per day, the highest monthly record. In addition, as of the week of June 1, the number of active oil drilling in the United States increased by 2 to 861, which has recorded an increase for 8 consecutive weeks, and reached a new high in March 2015. According to a comment released by HY Investment (UK) on June 5, the aforementioned data is the leading indicator of US crude oil production. The increase in oil drilling indicates that US crude oil production will continue to grow, posing potential pressure on oil prices. “OPEC oil-producing countries and non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia are still in the framework of an agreement, but for the United States, rising oil prices will drive the growth of shale oil. For oil prices, it is a greater price limit. The unfavorable factor of rising. From the current fundamental supply and demand relationship, the supply is still surplus, which greatly limits the upside of oil prices. We maintain the expectation of Brent crude oil range fluctuation of 55-75 US dollars. Therefore, we believe that oil prices turn up The possibility is relatively low, both technical and supply and demand fundamentals are limiting the possibility of oil prices returning to $80." Wang Yujie said.

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