"The scale of China's economy will surpass the United States in 2014 to become the world's number one." Recently, the World Bank released the 2011 “International Comparison Project†report, which predicted through the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) calculation that China may surpass the United States this year and become the world's number one economy. Because the industry has generally believed that the total economic output of China will surpass the United States before and after 2020, the new argument of the World Bank has caused heated discussion among major media around the world.
According to the British "Financial Times" report, the World Bank released the report on April 29, that in terms of PPP, China's economy has reached 86.9% of the United States in 2011, more than double the 43.1% in 2005. This shows that if calculated by PPP, China's economic aggregate is drawing closer to the United States. The World Bank's “International Comparison Project†collects comparable price and expenditure data every six years, and uses purchasing power parity to measure the size and contrast of different economies.
The US "Huffington Post" reported on the 2nd that considering the World Bank's 2011 data, and China's economic growth rate has surpassed that of the United States after 2011, China's economic scale may now surpass the United States and become the world. The largest economy. However, the National Bureau of Statistics of China participating in this report does not agree with this view and has reservations about relevant research methods.
The Bank's predictive views have also raised questions from some media. The US "Washington Post" article pointed out that there are limitations in comparing the GDP of China and the United States through the purchasing power parity method. Since in the international trade, the exchange rate must be used as the basis for payment, the exchange rate law is undoubtedly more important when comparing the economic strength between countries. The article also pointed out that even with PPP calculation, China's per capita GDP is also ranked 99th in the world.
Some American economists believe that this economic comparison is misleading because it does not take into account the floating exchange rate. Greg McBride, a US financial analyst, said that although PPP eliminates some statistical distortion, the error is still large. Stephen Schwartz, a former official of the International Monetary Fund [microblogging], said: "You can expect more countries with larger populations to produce more, but on a per capita basis, China is still poor."
Cao Heping, a professor at Peking University School of Economics, told reporters on the 3rd that the World Bank’s report should be viewed positively, but don’t look proudly. “The conclusion that China will become the world’s largest economy this year is relatively reasonableâ€. Last year, China’s GDP was calculated at the exchange rate of the time, reaching 10 trillion US dollars, while the United States was more than 16 trillion US dollars. It should be pointed out that our RMB is undervalued by the exchange rate, because the low-end basic products of the products exported to the United States account for the majority, and the currency value reflected in the low-priced sales will be underestimated. At the same time, the US exports to China. High-end products such as financial services and creative design. "Strictly speaking, China's economy may exceed the United States two or three years ago."
In addition, the per capita GDP and the size of the two countries' economic aggregates are two different things. "A pile of apples and a pile of watermelons, each with a capacity of 100,000 tons. It can't be said that apples are small, and they think that there is a difference in weight. The welfare of China is not as good as that of the United States, but it cannot be said that the total amount is not as large as the United States." Tao, of course, per capita is good and there are certain reasons, but good per capita and good totals are necessary.
According to the British "Financial Times" report, the World Bank released the report on April 29, that in terms of PPP, China's economy has reached 86.9% of the United States in 2011, more than double the 43.1% in 2005. This shows that if calculated by PPP, China's economic aggregate is drawing closer to the United States. The World Bank's “International Comparison Project†collects comparable price and expenditure data every six years, and uses purchasing power parity to measure the size and contrast of different economies.
The US "Huffington Post" reported on the 2nd that considering the World Bank's 2011 data, and China's economic growth rate has surpassed that of the United States after 2011, China's economic scale may now surpass the United States and become the world. The largest economy. However, the National Bureau of Statistics of China participating in this report does not agree with this view and has reservations about relevant research methods.
The Bank's predictive views have also raised questions from some media. The US "Washington Post" article pointed out that there are limitations in comparing the GDP of China and the United States through the purchasing power parity method. Since in the international trade, the exchange rate must be used as the basis for payment, the exchange rate law is undoubtedly more important when comparing the economic strength between countries. The article also pointed out that even with PPP calculation, China's per capita GDP is also ranked 99th in the world.
Some American economists believe that this economic comparison is misleading because it does not take into account the floating exchange rate. Greg McBride, a US financial analyst, said that although PPP eliminates some statistical distortion, the error is still large. Stephen Schwartz, a former official of the International Monetary Fund [microblogging], said: "You can expect more countries with larger populations to produce more, but on a per capita basis, China is still poor."
Cao Heping, a professor at Peking University School of Economics, told reporters on the 3rd that the World Bank’s report should be viewed positively, but don’t look proudly. “The conclusion that China will become the world’s largest economy this year is relatively reasonableâ€. Last year, China’s GDP was calculated at the exchange rate of the time, reaching 10 trillion US dollars, while the United States was more than 16 trillion US dollars. It should be pointed out that our RMB is undervalued by the exchange rate, because the low-end basic products of the products exported to the United States account for the majority, and the currency value reflected in the low-priced sales will be underestimated. At the same time, the US exports to China. High-end products such as financial services and creative design. "Strictly speaking, China's economy may exceed the United States two or three years ago."
In addition, the per capita GDP and the size of the two countries' economic aggregates are two different things. "A pile of apples and a pile of watermelons, each with a capacity of 100,000 tons. It can't be said that apples are small, and they think that there is a difference in weight. The welfare of China is not as good as that of the United States, but it cannot be said that the total amount is not as large as the United States." Tao, of course, per capita is good and there are certain reasons, but good per capita and good totals are necessary.
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