Bankers’ confidence in China’s economy has clearly rebounded

According to a joint survey conducted by the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics, bankers' confidence in economic operations has clearly rebounded. In the fourth quarter, the banker's macroeconomic heat index was 38.6%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among them, 69.8% of bankers believe that the current macro economy is “normal”, up 12.2 percentage points from the previous quarter; 26.5% of bankers believe that the current macro economy is “cold”, down 13.4 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The optimism of entrepreneurs on the economic situation has also rebounded. The “Report on Entrepreneur Survey for the Fourth Quarter of 2013” ​​released by the central bank shows that the macroeconomic heat index of entrepreneurs in the fourth quarter was 34.7%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter. It increased by 3.1 percentage points in the same period last year. Among them, 33.2% of enterprises believe that the macro economy is “cold”, 64.3% think “normal”, and 2.5% think “hot”. The Entrepreneur Confidence Index was 65.9%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and up 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

However, bankers’ expectations of the banking industry are more conservative. In the fourth quarter, the banking industry sentiment index was 77.9%, up only 1 percentage point from the previous quarter. The bank's profit index was 81.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. The Bank's competitiveness index was 63%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Bankers' conservative expectations are related to weak credit demand. The survey results show that the overall demand index for loans in the fourth quarter was 74.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. In terms of industries, the manufacturing loan demand index was 65.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter; the non-manufacturing loan demand index was 63.7%, which was basically the same as last quarter. In terms of scale, the loan demand index of large and small and micro enterprises was 56.9% and 76.9%, respectively, up 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter; the medium-sized enterprise loan demand index was 67.1%, which was the same as last quarter.

In the fourth quarter, the business climate index was 58.1%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter and down 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, 29.4% of enterprises believe that the business situation of this quarter is “better”, 57.5% think “general”, and 13.1% think “poor”.

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