Since the reversal of supply and demand in China's coal market in 2012, the country has completely liberalized coal prices. Relative to oil and gas, electricity, etc., coal is now a completely market-oriented industry, and its product prices are entirely determined by the market supply and demand. Due to the declining trend of coal prices, the profits of coal companies have declined, and some have even lost money. Therefore, some local governments have introduced protectionist policies and measures, which are beneficial to the sales of local coal companies in the short term. However, long-term advantages and disadvantages are difficult to say, such as the purchase of local coal users. Granting incentive subsidies is tantamount to taking the taxpayer’s money and the market to wrestle.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the rapid economic growth in China, the demand for energy has continued to grow substantially. Countries and multinational corporations that include almost all resource products are sharing the dividends of China’s development. China's coal industry is naturally smooth, and coal prices have experienced a unilateral rise for ten years. The boom rate is called “Golden Ten Years,†and it can be described as an irresistible battle. Coal companies have earned enough money, and the money-making effect has led to a substantial increase in investment in the coal industry. Mergers and reorganizations have promoted industrial upgrading, and the level of mining mechanization and information technology has greatly increased.
Vice Minister of the National Development and Reform Commission Lian Weiliang stated at the 2013 national summer power video conference that the supply, demand, and supply of coal, electricity, and oil in the first five months of the year were relatively relaxed, but the structural contradictions were relatively prominent. In fact, since the middle of last year, as economic growth has slowed down, environmental constraints have become more prominent, and demand for energy, including coal, has declined. From the data, the total demand for coal has not declined, or there has been an increase, but the percentage of growth has decreased from the double digits of the previous decade to single digits. However, the large drop in prices has hit the coal industry beyond expectations. Analyzed from the perspective of supply and demand, the sharp increase in coal prices in the previous decade was mainly due to the strong growth in energy demand for national economic development, tight production and supply of coal, and a price increase driven by demand. Of course, there are also policies, transport bottlenecks, reverse distribution of resources and demand, and other factors. Now that China's energy development and utilization are further developing towards energy conservation, high efficiency, cleanliness, and low carbon, demand has changed, but the quantity has still increased, and the coal price has fallen by half, indicating that the coal production capacity and output greatly exceed the demand, and the statistics are also very clear. Explain this point. Therefore, it can be said that the major force driving the decline in coal prices now comes from the coal industry itself.
This time, he was a moment. The "structural contradictions" mentioned by the Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Lian Weiliang, refer to more conditions, but the contradiction between coal and electricity is still outstanding. It is one of them. Coal and thermal power as the industry's upstream and downstream relations, the coal price rose sharply in the previous decade, because the electricity price has not been liberalized, thermal power companies suffered serious losses, complaints, coal companies muffled and made a fortune; now the relationship between supply and demand reversed, coal companies complained, thermal power companies Muffled voice made a fortune. The National Development and Reform Commission has for many years promoted the integration of coal-fired power with poor results and few cases. Like the merger case of the same coal group that restructured Zhangze Power, it is now wise to make decisions and balance the market risks and the cycle of coal price fluctuations. Of course, coal is now worth less, and for power, it is a good time to merge and restructure coal companies.
Now, many of the more difficult coal companies hope that the market situation will gradually turn for the better. Coal prices will rise and tide over the difficulties. I am afraid it will be difficult to do so. The market will not “take a license†according to your wishes, and the policies and the environment will not support it. The 12th Five-Year Plan of China's energy proposes that by 2015, the ratio of high-carbon coal and oil to primary energy will be reduced by 6.9 percentage points from 2010, while low-carbon natural gas and non-fossil energy will increase by 6.9 percentage points. At present, governments at all levels are striving to transform the economic structure. China’s steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, shipbuilding, glass manufacturing and other production capacity are in excess. However, some companies and local governments are unwilling to take the lead in cutting capacity, and they all want to wait for others to die. The mechanism is temporarily out of order and has accumulated a greater market and environmental crisis. The pressure on the surrounding environment in Beijing and Tianjin is outstanding. Hebei announced that it will reduce coal use by 40 million tons by 2015 and reduce steel production by 60 million tons by 2020. The market effect remains to be seen, but the use of coal will undoubtedly decline. In terms of the international environment, in order to deal with climate change and protect the environment, carbon emission reduction has become an international consensus and policy goal. On June 25, U.S. President Barack Obama announced new carbon emission reductions at the time when Georgetown University released a new climate policy. The plan, and proposed three specific measures to promote the implementation of the plan, the media said that Obama declared war on coal.
As a coal resource enterprise, if the assets and liabilities are low and the liquidity is abundant, the profitability of the company under current market conditions will decline, and there will be no survival concern. However, if the coal price is high, the risk consciousness is not strong, the high level will be followed, the expansion will be blind, and the cost of capital will be high. Now when the coal price falls, profitability and debt-relief capacity have dropped drastically, and even losses have become inevitable. This is the decision-making. The cost of mistakes. To make up for the dead, you need to take the opportunity to act decisively, take advantage of the situation, and not be lucky. Some scholars believe that the current economy needs four defenses: First, prevent investment from overheating; Second, prevent inflation from intensifying; Third, prevention from slow transition; Fourth, reforms from stagnation. In fact, I think that apart from preventing inflation, the other three coal companies can borrow and take warning. It is still too late.
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