Summary Core Tip: As investors were encouraged by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s earlier signal this week, Bernanke testified in Congress that there was no decision on when to reduce stimulus. The Fed’s $85 billion monthly bond purchase program is for investors to buy copper and other commodities...
Core Tip: As investors were encouraged by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s earlier signal this week, Bernanke testified in Congress that there was no decision on when to reduce stimulus. The Fed’s $85 billion monthly bond purchase program provides investors with support for the buying of copper and other commodities, and the market is increasingly bearish on Chinese metal consumption. [Latest market]
â— LME Electronics - Copper 6920 rose 11, aluminum 1825.5 rose 21, zinc 1864.5 rose 3.5, lead 2042.5 fell 1.3, nickel 14180 rose 154, tin 19499 fell 36, aluminum alloy 1780 fell 5.
â— International spot gold 1310.9 rose 15.5, silver 19.82 rose 0.31, platinum 1440.5 rose 11.5, palladium 751.1 rose 3.6.
â— LME copper stock 638325 minus 2275 aluminum stock 5477725 minus 1825 zinc stock 1071625 minus 4000 lead stock 196475 flat nickel stock 196062 minus 108 tin stock 14245 flat.
â— Shanghai Futures Trading Weekly Inventory: copper stock 167429 minus 947 aluminum stock 377658 minus 5092 zinc stock 272426 minus 2662 lead stock 111984 minus 1559.
[LME Interpretation and Today's Forecast]
â— Lun copper early comment: the US dollar retreated on Friday, the Fed's flexible monetary policy resumed market confidence, and the copper price closed up slightly; the copper price fluctuated higher this week, or constructed a short-term bottom, focusing on the resistance level of 7,000 US dollars.
â— Lun aluminum early comment: Last Friday, Lun aluminum rose again, and rose more than 1% at the close; technically, the current top line of $1,850 is still temporarily holding strong resistance, and whether it can effectively break through or determine its long-term direction.
â— Lun lead early evaluation: Lun lead is still in the range of 2000-2100 US dollars. Last week, Shanghai lead stocks decreased first and then increased, the total amount decreased slightly. The domestic lead market supply and demand pattern is balanced, and the lead price is difficult in the short term.
◠Long-term evaluation of zinc: The Fed’s exit policy requires further confirmation of employment data. The weaker dollar helped support the upward trend of commodities, and the zinc price rose from the downside. The market tension was moderate, and the zinc price was expected to rebound in the short-term.
â— Lunxi early comment: supported by the weakening of the US dollar index, the basic metals rose, the trend of Lunxi was relatively weak, and the intraday sharply fell back. The technical 30-day line was more obvious, and it was expected to fluctuate around 19,600.
â— Lun Nickel early comment: the market worried about the mood has eased, the bulls have the upper hand, last Friday, the nickel has risen again, and stood above 14,000 US dollars, the technical indicators improved, it is expected that the short-term strong shock probability is greater.
[Industry Interpretation]
â— Barclays lowered the 2014 aluminum spot price estimate
Barclays lowered its aluminum price forecast for 2014, saying that the increase in aluminum production in China has led to a significant oversupply of global aluminum. Barclays lowered its 2014 LME aluminum spot price estimate from the previous $2,100 per ton to $1,838 per ton.
Interpretation : With the long-term weakening of aluminum prices and the accelerated expansion of China's aluminum production capacity, all major institutions are generally bearish on the future expectations of the aluminum market; we believe that if demand continues to be weak, and there is no substantial positive introduction to boost In the future, the price of aluminum will not be ruled out and will fall to a lower position than in the financial crisis.
â— Because of the drop in zinc and silver prices, Yukon Zinc of Canada plans to reduce Wolverine mine production, plans to cut production by 40% this year, and plans to lay off 30% of workers.
Interpretation: At present, the rebound of zinc price is weak, and it is near the cost line, causing most zinc mine enterprises to reduce production and operation, especially for small-scale mining enterprises. It is reasonable for Canada Yukon Zinc Mine Company to reduce the production of Wolverine mine.
[Financial Express]
Dow Jones index 15543.7 fell 4.8, Nasdaq 3587.61 fell 23.67, Hang Seng index 21362.42 rose 17.2, CRB index 517.76 rose 0.79, US dollar index 82.57 fell 0.07, EUR/USD 1.3146 rose 0.0009, USD/JPY 100.49 fell 0.12, US crude oil 108.44 It rose by 0.39.
[Auditor Reads Finance]
â— Global business confidence fell to a few years low
Interpretation: As business confidence in the United States and China has fallen sharply, global business confidence has fallen to the lowest point since the financial crisis broke out in June this year. Contrary to the US and China, business confidence in the UK has rebounded significantly. At the same time, the UK's money supply has risen rapidly, while the US and China's money supply growth has slowed relatively. Among them, one of the important reasons for the slowdown in US money supply growth is the sharp decline in the total amount of commercial bank loans. The global economy is clearly re-emerging again, which largely reflects the relatively dim economic prospects of the United States and China.
â— G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting: countries should carefully adjust monetary policy and communicate clear information to other countries
Interpretation: At present, global economic growth is still weak, and the process of economic recovery reflects fragility and imbalance. In many countries, the unemployment rate is too high and the European economy continues to decline. Although emerging economies have shown sustained and steady growth, the growth rate is slower. At present, promoting growth and job creation are the top priorities for all countries, and countries will take decisive action to bring the economy back to strong growth.
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