China board trading network news:
Compared to the end of last year, steel prices have doubled in 2016. Chinese steel companies are hoping that this upward trend will continue into the next year.
On December 19, Hegang issued the price (including tax) policy of January 2017 for plates, and various types of products such as plate, hot-rolled coil and pickling coil were raised by RMB 500-600/ton. Among them, compared with the current execution price, the color coated plate has the lowest growth rate of 6.9%, while the medium plate has the highest increase rate of nearly 13%. On the same day, Benxi Steel also issued a product price policy in January 2017. Hot-rolled coils, pickled boards, electrical steels and other products were raised by 500-1,000 yuan/ton, with the highest increase reaching nearly 17%. Prior to this, Shougang, Wuhan Iron and Steel, and Baosteel have also taken the lead in raising the price of flats in January 2017, with the minimum increase of 350 yuan/ton.
Senior researcher Xiuyin Xiuyuecheng said in an interview with Xinhua News that “The price increase of steel sheet is mainly due to the fact that the price of sheet metal has been rising sharply in the early period, and the price of sheet metal manufacturers has been offered on a monthly basis. From a monthly point of view, it is still a big trend. ."
Baosteel also pointed out in the price adjustment announcement that the purchasing managers' index PMI released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing on December 1 reached a record high in November, indicating that the downstream demand has stabilized and the plate customers are expected to maintain strong demand in the first quarter.
In addition to optimism about the expectations, sheet steel mills also hold up-front inflationary psychology. Qiu Yuecheng analyzed, “The price of pre-slabs was relatively low. For example, the price in December was released in mid-November. At that time, Shanghai’s hot-rolling was basically around RMB 3,200/ton, but now it has basically exceeded RMB 3,800/ton, which has increased by a month. 600 yuan / ton, manufacturers feel that steel traders made a lot in December, so in January it will make up for it."
It is worth noting that, compared with all the way to the plate, manufacturers are more pessimistic about the prices of rebar and other building materials.
According to the adjustment information of the Nishimoto Shinkansen statistics, on December 19, a total of 18 steel mills nationwide adjusted the prices of steel products. The Xinhua News Agency found that except for Hegang and Benxi Steel, the prices of sheet metal products have been raised, and the remaining 16 steel mills have lowered the prices of construction steel such as high-wire, thread, and plate screw by RMB 10-80/tonne.
The reduction of steel prices by construction companies is based on the decline in market prices. Xu Xiangchun, Mysteel Information Director, told the news that “were driven by strong expectations for de-capacity, the recent steel prices have risen too sharply, and the dynamic profitability of steel mills has reached the highest level this year. However, after entering the low demand season, there was a lack of demand support, and raw materials prices such as coke began to callback. It is inevitable that the price of steel will fall back." Under the above background, the manufacturers have lowered their ex-factory prices due to the short pricing cycle of construction steel.
In addition, although environmental protection has increased, and steel mills have stopped production and limited production, the social stocks of rebar have risen for four consecutive weeks. According to the data of the Shinkansen Shinkansen, as of December 16th, the rebar social inventory was 4.364 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons from the previous week, an increase of 4.18%. Qiu Yuecheng said, “The figure has increased by about 18% compared with the same period of last year, reflecting the recent trend of supply contraction in the news, but the inventory is still rising, so the impact of haze warnings, production cuts, and production stoppages will be affected. Not very big." However, the current absolute value of inventory is still at a low level in recent years.
However, excluding the weakening of cost support and the arrival of the off-season, expectations for the Chinese steel market are quietly shifting.
Qiu Yuecheng said, “Sustained fermentation of IF furnace remediation caused a wave of skyrocketing some time ago, but some recent macro data show that real estate has cooled, steel production is still at a high level, the Fed raised interest rates, and raised the number of expected interest rate increases next year for the entire The suppression of bulk commodities and the central economic work conference also showed that there will be a marginal tightening of monetary policy next year, and various factors have caused the entire expectations of the steel market to change."
Qiu Yuecheng expects this pessimistic forecast, which has just begun to permeate, to continue for some time. In the near future, construction steel prices will be weak. Qiu Yuecheng added that “23 cities issued a red warning on smog and on December 18th Tangshan also announced the policy of total production of sintering machines and 50% of blast furnaces, but these news did not stimulate the market, reflecting the market’s supply. The level of news is expected to weaken, and the entire focus has turned to pessimistic expectations of demand and funding."
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