Relevant experts said in the 2018 China Energy and Chemical Industry Market Forum and 2019 Outlook activities that with the rapid expansion of the refining and chemical industry, the gross profit of refined oil products will gradually decline, and the oil industry chain needs to find new ways from many aspects.
Qiu Xuan, a senior engineer at the PetroChina Research Institute for Refined Oil, said that by 2030, the refining and chemical industry will be in a period of rapid expansion. At present, there are more than 20 refinery projects in China, and the capacity will increase by 120 million tons by 2020. It is expected to increase by 200 million tons by 2030. China's refining capacity will reach 870 million tons per year in 2020, and refining capacity will reach 1 billion tons per year in 2030. China will become the world's largest refining country.
Qiu Xuan believes that the demand for oil products will be further differentiated. By 2020, the consumption of diesel fuel will be reduced to around 1.0, and the demand structure needs to be further adjusted downward. The oil product upgrade will be further accelerated. The ten-year oil product upgrade in China is equivalent to the process of 20 to 30 years before the European and American countries. In January 2019, the new national zero standard will be implemented, which is more stringent than Europe. The continuous improvement of environmental protection standards will also be a major trend in the development of the refining and chemical industry. In addition, oversupply will be the situation facing the refining industry for a long time to come.
“For refineries, the adaptability of raw materials must be improved. As more shale oil enters the international market, refineries need to adapt to more raw materials to be able to share more dividends. Refineries should try to broaden the development path. Reflecting its own diversity of application to the market.†Qiu Xuan suggested that refineries should also participate in the deployment of bonded low-sulfur fuel oil. In terms of sales, we must pay close attention to gasoline customers. The number of customers contacted by one ton of gasoline is five times that of diesel customers. These customers are natural flow inlets. With reference to European and American experience, 70% of the gross profit of gas stations in the future will come from gasoline. How to seize the gasoline customer to expand the business extension, let your gas station become the entrance to other consumer scenarios is also a matter to consider.
Liao Na, executive vice president of Shanghai Ganglian Energy Chemical Information Technology Co., Ltd., believes that from the perspective of the future oil industry chain, clean, safe, transformation and regulation will be the main tone, and for the most bulky oil market Marketization, cleanliness, interconnection and urbanization are the four major trends. Liao Na said that the retail gross profit of China's gasoline will gradually decline in the future, and will enter a stable range by 2020, and may be already a high point in 2018. The main factors affecting the gross profit of gasoline retailing are the new consumption tax and tax reform, the possibility of price liberalization and the development of new energy.
"The current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism is guided by the National Development and Reform Commission, and if the future pricing mechanism is liberalized, it is likely to be a phased advancement, that is, through Sinopec benchmark pricing, and gradually into market pricing." Liao said.
Qiu Xuan, a senior engineer at the PetroChina Research Institute for Refined Oil, said that by 2030, the refining and chemical industry will be in a period of rapid expansion. At present, there are more than 20 refinery projects in China, and the capacity will increase by 120 million tons by 2020. It is expected to increase by 200 million tons by 2030. China's refining capacity will reach 870 million tons per year in 2020, and refining capacity will reach 1 billion tons per year in 2030. China will become the world's largest refining country.
Qiu Xuan believes that the demand for oil products will be further differentiated. By 2020, the consumption of diesel fuel will be reduced to around 1.0, and the demand structure needs to be further adjusted downward. The oil product upgrade will be further accelerated. The ten-year oil product upgrade in China is equivalent to the process of 20 to 30 years before the European and American countries. In January 2019, the new national zero standard will be implemented, which is more stringent than Europe. The continuous improvement of environmental protection standards will also be a major trend in the development of the refining and chemical industry. In addition, oversupply will be the situation facing the refining industry for a long time to come.
“For refineries, the adaptability of raw materials must be improved. As more shale oil enters the international market, refineries need to adapt to more raw materials to be able to share more dividends. Refineries should try to broaden the development path. Reflecting its own diversity of application to the market.†Qiu Xuan suggested that refineries should also participate in the deployment of bonded low-sulfur fuel oil. In terms of sales, we must pay close attention to gasoline customers. The number of customers contacted by one ton of gasoline is five times that of diesel customers. These customers are natural flow inlets. With reference to European and American experience, 70% of the gross profit of gas stations in the future will come from gasoline. How to seize the gasoline customer to expand the business extension, let your gas station become the entrance to other consumer scenarios is also a matter to consider.
Liao Na, executive vice president of Shanghai Ganglian Energy Chemical Information Technology Co., Ltd., believes that from the perspective of the future oil industry chain, clean, safe, transformation and regulation will be the main tone, and for the most bulky oil market Marketization, cleanliness, interconnection and urbanization are the four major trends. Liao Na said that the retail gross profit of China's gasoline will gradually decline in the future, and will enter a stable range by 2020, and may be already a high point in 2018. The main factors affecting the gross profit of gasoline retailing are the new consumption tax and tax reform, the possibility of price liberalization and the development of new energy.
"The current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism is guided by the National Development and Reform Commission, and if the future pricing mechanism is liberalized, it is likely to be a phased advancement, that is, through Sinopec benchmark pricing, and gradually into market pricing." Liao said.
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