Steel market: questioned production cuts

According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s iron ore production in July was 115.461 million tons, a decrease of 10.232 million tons from June, a decrease of 8.14% from the previous month, and an increase of 10.8% from the same period of last year. During the month, China’s cumulative production was 715.286 million tons, an increase of 15.8% from the same period of last year, and its growth rate in the same period fell by 6.1 percentage points.

According to the latest XNA data of China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of major and medium-sized enterprises in the first half of August was 1,600,500 tons, up by 0.82% compared with the previous period, and the average daily crude steel production of the country was 1.699 million tons, up by 1.05% from the previous month. . From the market feedback information, after entering August, the domestic iron and steel companies have noticeably increased their information on maintenance and production cuts. The data from the China Steel Association made the market once again doubtful about the trend of production cuts.

On the 17th, the domestic iron ore market price was operating weakly, and the external iron ore imports fell steadily; the market price of steel billets fell steadily, and the market volume was light; the market price of pig iron and scrap was low, and the merchants were not active at low prices; coke, The market price of coking coal is running weakly; the prices of special alloys in the ferroalloy market are relatively stable, and the prices of common alloys are steadily falling. International iron ore transportation prices fell; spot prices were flat or falling.

Trading Tip: According to the latest data released by China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in early August was 1,969,900 tons, an increase of 1.08% from the previous month, and the average daily steel production was 2,553,400 tons, a decrease of 9.62%. According to my steel network statistics, as of August 10, the daily average molten iron production affected by the reduction in production was 155.35 million tons (14.59 million tons last week), and the intensity of production reduction was further increased. From the above contradictory data, we believe that under the current profit level, the steel mills lack the impetus for production cuts, and the estimated production cuts are limited. Due to the slow iron ore destocking process, August is the off-season steel consumption, railway investment continues to be sluggish, steel prices have risen. More difficult. Steel ** affixed to a larger extent, is not conducive to chasing the empty, currently maintaining low volatility ideas, interval 3600-3800, it is recommended to wait and see.

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