Talking about "surplus" of methanol

It is understood that since the fourth quarter of 2012, due to the impact of real estate regulatory policies, the methanol industry's most important downstream demand terminal formaldehyde industry "is not busy season, off-season is even lighter." Therefore, many people said that concerns about overcapacity have emerged.

According to the data from the National Methanol Network, from 2011 to 2015, 64 projects under construction are under construction, with an increase of 53.30 million tons of new production capacity, which will promote the continued growth of domestic trade. However, these production capacities are mainly concentrated in energy-rich regions in the central and western regions, including the Northwest With a capacity of around 32 million tons under construction, most of these plants are equipped with downstream olefins or dimethyl ether products.

From November 26th to 28th, when the China Securities Journal reporter went to the northwest region with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, he discovered that the relative profits of the production enterprises in the northwestern major producing areas were relatively considerable. Despite some surplus in the methanol downstream industry, the upstream raw material production enterprises were Full production.

An industry insider in Ordos told reporters that the downstream refinement of methanol is relatively sufficient, and the market demand is not so weak. For example, the demand for formaldehyde downstream of methanol in the fourth quarter is not good, but the demand for dimethyl ether in the market with poor demand has started to improve. Under the drive of emerging downstream demand such as dimethyl ether, methanol fuel, and methanol to olefins, methanol terminal demand has been recovering steadily.

“The downstream industry has low concentration and weak pricing power.” Wei Jiangping, marketing director of Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy Co., Ltd. believes that the downstream demand for methanol is broad and scattered, and the demand conditions of various varieties are relatively independent. It may be that the demand for a downstream species is within a certain period. It is relatively weak, but the demand for other varieties may be better. In this shift, the price of methanol is less affected by the overall lack of downstream demand.

China is one of the few countries in the world that uses methanol as the main raw material to produce methanol. Preferential policies for coal resources in the Northwest have given local manufacturers a certain advantage in terms of cost. A person in charge of a coal-to-methanol company in Yulin told this reporter that the high cost support for coal-made methanol still exists, but this year the price of coal has fallen by a large margin, resulting in a lower methanol production cost than last year, which is about 200 yuan per ton. This is also northwest methanol. The price drop has reserved a large space. Last year, the lowest prices in Northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia had reached 1,900 yuan/ton.

However, Jia Shuan said that the upstream methanol production companies still have some profits, inventory levels and the same period last year, the methanol utilization rate in the Northwest region is still relatively high, monolitol devices are generally full of horsepower, in order to exert scale effect, reduce production costs .

"Simply put, the operating rate is actually calculated based on a reasonable output capacity. The market says that the operating rate is low, and it is necessary to clearly distinguish the monoalcohol (methanol production only) and the bialcohol (production of ammonia while producing methanol) devices. The equipment needs to be looked at in seasons, such as the peak season of fertilizer production, methanol will have less production points, and vice versa."

Jia Shuan said that in the Inner Mongolian policy, the use of coal resources is based on the condition that the coal conversion rate should reach 50%. This means that 100 tons of coal can be sold for 50 tons but must be converted to 50 tons, which led to the launch of a series of coal chemical (coal-to-oil, coal-to-methanol) projects. In the past few years, when the coal price was good, one ton of coal could earn between 80 and 100 yuan. After some enterprises have coal resources, even if the completed methanol plant is commissioned, the operating rate is not necessarily high. Because once it is on, it is full production unless there is a failure.

Jia Shuan said that in the current situation of falling coal prices, as long as the coal-produced methanol meets the conditions allowed by the market, companies will start production at full capacity. There are very few alkanol devices in the northwest, and for a large monoalcohol device, either it is not open or it runs at full capacity to achieve economies of scale.