According to the preliminary data of imports and exports announced by the General Administration of Customs in June, China’s unfunded copper and copper imports in June were 346,200 tons, down 17.5% from the previous month. Based on previous historical data, we found that since the beginning of this year, China’s unwrought copper and The import of copper has shown a downward trend. In the current domestic economy, there is still a large downside risk and the economic situation in the second half of the year will not be greatly improved. We expect that the import volume will continue in the next period. Continue to show a downward trend. The reasons for the volatility of unwrought copper and copper imports are multifaceted. In addition to the main factors affecting the macro economy, there is also a decline in copper stocks in the bonded area and a decline in demand for trade financing copper. In terms of the financing demand of copper, in the past two or three years, the sharp increase in the demand for copper financing in China has been the main reason for the continuous increase in domestic copper imports, and it has also boosted domestic and international copper prices since 2008. One of the main factors for the sharp rebound in the crisis low point. In 2010, China’s copper trade financing demand accounted for 83.3% of total refined copper imports. In 2011, this proportion further rose to 86%, and from the top five this year. According to the monthly data, the proportion of copper's trade financing demand in the first four months has remained at 85-91%, and the proportion of trade financing demand of May copper has dropped from 86.8% to 77.46%. It also paved the way for the continued decline in copper imports in June. From the preliminary data on copper imports in June, we believe that the demand for trade financing copper in June will further fall back to 70-75%. From the perspective of the impact of copper financing demand on copper prices, when the financing demand is relatively high, the copper price will rise and fall, and when the financing demand falls, the copper price will also fall, which can be The trend of copper prices since the beginning of this year has been somewhat confirmed. At present, the three major economies in China, the United States and Europe still have large economic downside risks, while domestic copper downstream entity consumer demand has been in a sluggish situation. In addition, domestic banks have strengthened their review of commodity financing loans since the second quarter. The increase in control standards has made it difficult for domestic copper trade financing, which has gradually reduced the proportion of trade financing demand. In the case of a decline in consumer demand and financing demand, and the economic outlook is not optimistic, we expect copper prices to Gradually return to the mid- and long-term shocks and downward trend.
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