Expert: New energy vehicles will replace fuel vehicles in 15 years

On the snow at the mouth of the Dadongshu Mountain in Qinghai at 4120 meters above sea level, Beiqi New Energy ES21 and EV200, Changan Yidong EV, Dongfeng Qichen Chenfeng, BYD Daimler Tengshi and other pure electric vehicles are lined up. This is the scene of the “2015 Qinghai Lake (International) Electric Vehicle Challenge” held recently.

This challenge is the first electric car race in the world to be provided by professional organizations. It has a total length of 981.4 kilometers in 12 stages. The terrain is complex and the climate is variable. It is a test of the battery life, fast charging ability and climbing. Slope performance, ability to adapt to high cold climate, safety performance, etc.

Although Tesla, the most powerful electric vehicle in the world, has not joined the competition, it is somewhat regrettable, but it does not affect the excitement of this event. All the way to the site have set up temporary charging stations, the five pure electric vehicles participating in the competition have their own strengths. In the end, Beiqi New Energy Vehicle won the best breakthrough award, the best fast charge ability award and other awards, Changan Yi EV won the most Jiali climbing ability award, Dongfeng Nissan Qichen morning wind won the best handling performance award, BYD Daimler Tengshi won the best technology configuration award.

Wu Zhixin, deputy director of China Automotive Technology Research Center and director of the rally competition judging committee, said in an interview recently that domestic electric vehicle technology has made great progress, which is in line with the increase of investment by major auto companies and China's new energy. Car support is closely related to the world's biggest factors. He is personally optimistic about the development prospects of China's new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2030, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the Chinese market will reach 30%, and the market share of hybrid electric vehicles will exceed 60. %, while the general traditional fuel car is basically replaced.

Made ten years, just started

At present, consumers are generally worried about the performance of the electric vehicles that are getting rid of oil, such as handling and charging, and the basic supporting measures such as charging piles are still not perfect, and the popularization of new energy vehicles is still under great pressure. In this Qinghai pure electric car race, participating car companies are often not in order to compete for the rankings, but to collectively display the comprehensive strength of domestic electric vehicles.

New energy vehicles are recognized by the industry as a growth point visible in the future. At present, the Chinese auto market is cold, and the production and sales of new cars have both declined for the first time in 15 years. In May, the production and sales of autos have all declined. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles still maintain a high growth trend. According to the statistics of the complete vehicle certification of motor vehicles, in May 2015, China produced 19,100 new energy vehicles, a three-fold increase over the same period last year. From January to May 2015, the total production of new energy vehicles totaled 53,600 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly three times. Among them, the production of pure electric passenger vehicles was 25,800 units, an increase of nearly 3 times compared with the same period of last year. The plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles produced 13,700 units, a three-fold increase over the same period of last year; the production of pure electric commercial vehicles was 9,248 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 6 times. Plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles produced 4,761 units, a year-on-year increase of 58%.

However, despite the rapid progress of new energy vehicles in the past year or two, it is rare to hear the carnival of related car companies. The light is not in sight. New energy vehicles still account for less than 1% of the entire car market. It is difficult to support the car companies to achieve break-even in the new energy field in a short period of time. Wu Zhixin said that if there is no current government subsidies and a number of policy support, it is estimated that it is more difficult for enterprises to develop new energy vehicles.

Ren Yong, general manager of Chongqing Changan New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., said in an interview that the new energy automobile industry is still very small. It is still a young child. At this time, it is necessary to pull it and help it so that it can go. Let go, if in the past two years, as long as the subsidy policy is cut off and stopped, it will definitely die. Ren Yong has been developing new energy vehicle products since 2001, and has been working in the industry. It has been 14 years since the project started. Until March of this year, Changan’s first pure electric passenger car, the EV, was officially launched. Ren Yong admits that due to insufficient battery supply, Yi Yi EV is currently not on the market.

Investment in more than a decade is only the beginning. In the next decade, Changan Automobile plans to invest 18 billion yuan in the field of new energy vehicles. In the product, pure electric drive will be the main line, and the two plug-in hybrid and pure electric technology platforms will be developed simultaneously. By 2025, 34 new energy vehicles will be launched, covering the two platforms of passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Unlike many of the profitable subsidiaries and departments of Changan Automobile, Ren Yong is one of the leaders of Changan Automobile's new energy vehicle segment. Ren Yong has a deep understanding of this business: “Not only tired, I am talking about new energy. The car is not made by people, we have a lot of pressure."

Not long ago, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other four ministries jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles from 2016 to 2020", which clarified the downward adjustment of subsidies for new energy vehicles year after year. The subsidy standard for 2017~2018 will be reduced by 20% from 2016, and the subsidy standard for 2019~2020 will be reduced by 40% from 2016.

Therefore, Ren Yong is worried to some extent that the cost of new energy vehicles will not be able to run away from the speed of “regression”. After all, it is still impossible to see the specific situation of new energy vehicles five years later and ten years later. "Worry is worried. As far as we are concerned, from the perspective of product design and development, we must make the cost of the product lower and lower, and also need to act on the entire industry chain, including batteries." Ren Yong said that now new energy The quantity of the car is equivalent to the sample stage of the traditional car. The price of the sample stage is several times the mass production price. This cost actually has space. After the quantity goes up, it will reduce a lot of cost, not only because of the quantity and The price issue, including the cost of raw materials for lithium mines, is likely to decrease. He is confident that the future of new energy vehicles will turn a profit.

At this stage, most car companies have failed to achieve profitability in the new energy vehicle sector. At the SAIC Group shareholders meeting held on June 18, when individual investors questioned when SAIC invested heavily in new energy vehicles, Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Group, said that he could not see the hope of profit in the short term, but predicted that it would be 2018. New energy vehicles will have a rapid growth in the year or 2019.

Dark battery, the industry looks forward to a unified standard

Although the layout of new energy vehicles in advance is somewhat equal to “burning money”, if this strategic plan is not initiated in advance, it may miss opportunities for future development. Many domestic car companies are accelerating on new energy vehicles.

"We raced with Liu Xiang. Although we ran 30 meters earlier than him, he started to run. He was still sprinting." Ren Yong said that from the current point of view, the development of China's new energy vehicles is no worse than foreign ones, but It is still very difficult to achieve cornering overtaking on new energy vehicles. Europe, the United States and other regions or countries began research and development of new energy vehicles in the laboratory in the 1950s and 1960s, but only after industrialization, but domestic Car companies have been industrialized, but international car companies have a solid foundation in traditional cars, including in the field of control, and are likely to be post-production.

According to Zhang Yong, general manager of Beiqi New Energy Automobile Marketing Co., Ltd., China's electric vehicle market has gradually become a scale, and has made certain breakthroughs in power battery technology. At the same time, as a core of power battery, lithium ion and rare earth resources are strong. However, compared with the international leading level, China's electric vehicle companies do not have strong vehicle control capabilities, the technical foundation is not strong, and charging facilities require large-scale investment.

Wu Zhixin also said that at present, there is still a certain gap between domestic pure electric vehicle technology and international leading technology. The battery has not yet reached the ideal state, and there is still much room for improvement in battery thermostat technology. In Wu Zhixin's view, the key to the promotion of new energy vehicles is the breakthrough in battery technology.

At present, BYD, SAIC, BAIC, Changan, Lifan and other car companies are accelerating battery research and development. Some companies are studying the mode of power exchange, and the State Grid has also conducted research on this. Since September 1, 2014, new energy vehicles are exempt from vehicle purchase tax. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clearly defined the minimum mileage and warranty time, and provides low-cost equipment for new energy vehicles such as power batteries, motors, and electronic controls. The warranty is 5 years or 100,000 kilometers. Once the warranty period expires, if there is a problem with the battery, if the battery of the pure electric vehicle is as convenient as changing the battery of the flashlight, it can dispel the worries of the owner and promote the popularization of pure electric vehicles. However, this requires conditions such as battery standardization and vehicle body standards.

Wu Zhixin said that it is difficult to achieve this model. At present, there is no standard for the implementation of battery uniformity in the industry. Battery technology is the core technology for car companies to develop new energy vehicles. The possibility of sharing technical results to achieve uniform standards is negligible. Ren Yong also said that the idea of ​​changing the power mode is good, but it is difficult to practice.

At present, the contest between new energy vehicles and enterprises is more like a secret competition on the battery. Ren Yong said that Changan is constantly improving the battery performance of new energy vehicles and reducing battery costs. In the past few years, battery costs accounted for 50% to 60% of the cost of the entire vehicle, and now account for about 40%. The battery cells are purchased, and the integration of the battery pack is the design, development and production of its own new energy company.

Not only are companies rushing in the field of new energy vehicles, but some local governments also want to seize this opportunity. Qinghai, which has two-thirds of the country's lithium resource reserves, is building a lithium-ion industry chain and hopes to become one of the important producers of electric vehicles.

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