How large is the impact of property regulation on the steel market?

According to market feedback, after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, the construction of the construction site gradually increased, and the short-term adjustment of steel prices was basically in place, and the appeal to demand was strengthened. Therefore, the overall transaction last week showed a clear recovery. Looking at the situation this week, the construction plan for the construction site continues to increase and demand is expected to be further released.

The factors affecting the domestic construction steel market last week (2.25-3.1) mainly include the following aspects:

The first is that the dominant steelmakers are holding steady. Domestic steel prices have been oscillating down and there are not many steel mills that adjust the factory prices. Hebei Iron and Steel, Shougang Changzhi raised the price by RMB 100/ton in early March, while Huadong Shagang’s rebar price was flat in early March and was RMB 100/ton for the full month of February. In general, domestic steel mill prices and market prices are generally upside down. However, given the relatively high cost pressures, prices of steel mills remain firm, and the price cuts and replenishments are relatively limited.

The second is the majority of raw material prices fall. According to monitoring data, as of March 1st, the price of billet in the Tangshan area was 3,250 yuan/ton, down by 50 yuan/ton from last Friday; the price of scrap in Jiangsu was 2,900 yuan/ton, which was the same as last Friday; The price of coke in Shanxi was 1,470 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with last Friday. The price of 66% taste dry iron ore in Tangshan was 1,170 yuan/ton, down by 20 yuan/ton from last Friday. At the same time, the price of 63.5% Indian fines outside the plate was quoted at $152.75/ton, down $2.75/ton from last Friday.

The third is to increase warehouse after the holiday steel stocks. According to monitoring data, as of March 1st, the total inventory of major steel products in China was 21,583,600 tons, and the week-on-week ratio increase was 6.78%. Inventory growth slowed compared with the previous two weeks, indicating that downstream demand has emerged this week. Certain startup signs. At present, the total amount of social inventory has increased by more than 1 million tons year-on-year, and it has reached a new high level of history. In general, after years of inventory, it will experience 4-7 weeks of Masukura and then turn into the down channel, so the latter period De-stocking is a daunting task.

In addition, from the perspective of steel mill stocks, in mid-February, the steel stocks of key large and medium-sized enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association accounted for 12.978 million tons, a 13.3% increase over the previous period, a record high. The high output of steel mills and stocks will, on the one hand, limit the room for rising steel prices and, on the other hand, keep raw material prices firm.

There are currently several factors that will influence the future market trend. It is worth noting:

First, the steel PMI rebounded sharply to 58.9% in February. Data show that in February, the steel PMI rebounded 9.6 percentage points month-on-month to 58.9%, the highest since March 2011. Among the main sub-indexes, the new orders index and the new export order index have all rebounded to the highest point in two years, indicating that the order status of steel mills is quite satisfactory before and after the Spring Festival. The market has a better expectation of demand release during the peak season; but the production index and procurement Volume indexes also rose back to the highest point in two years. The finished goods inventory index returned to the expansion range. The matching between supply and demand in the later period may become the key to determining the trend of the market.

Second, the state's five rules were dropped. On March 1st, the Chinese government website announced the "Notice of the General Office of the State Council Concerning the Continuing Adjustment of the Real Estate Market." It stated that the individual income tax that should be levied on the sale of self-owned housing should be levied through the collection of historical information such as tax collection and management and housing registration. If the original value of the house is verified, it shall be calculated strictly in accordance with law according to 20% of the proceeds from the transfer. In addition, the notice also requires that, in cities where house prices rise too quickly, the ratio of first payment and the interest rate of second housing units should be further increased. It can be argued that the strictness of the "State Five" rule is beyond the expectation of all sectors of the society. In the short term, it will have a greater impact and pressure on the overall market mentality. In the medium to long term, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market will also be significantly suppressed. Aqisan, environmental protection proposals or focus again. The real estate control boots have landed, and the new government elected by the “**” may be able to bring more dividends in institutional reforms, especially under the influence of frequent hazy weather, environmental protection renovation is imminent. Previously, the Tangshan City Environmental Protection Agency has launched a “three investigations” campaign to investigate illegal sewage, check excessive pollutant discharge, and check malicious sewage for the entire city, and implemented video surveillance on the smoke emissions of 60 whole-process steel and 31 coking companies in the city. Full coverage. If the government can really attack the environmental protection issues of the steel industry, it will inevitably affect the output of the steel mills, which will help ease the long-standing contradiction between supply and demand.