China's PV industry has received two "big sticks" from the United States and the European Union: the European Commission officially announced that it has initiated countervailing investigations on wafers, batteries and components imported from Chinese PV companies; the same day, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) made a final ruling confirming the imposition of punitive tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and components imported from China. The "double-reverse" that has been disturbed has developed to this day, and the results have been basically confirmed. The door of the US market says goodbye to most Chinese companies. Similarly, although the EU's preliminary and final rulings have not yet been announced, the results must be similar to those of the United States, and Chinese PV companies no longer need to be lucky. On the contrary, China's PV industry and PV companies should reflect on four things and avoid repeating the same mistakes in support. Reflection 1: Countering the "double-reverse" government due to lack of confidence in the United States and Europe "double-reverse" announced a few days ago, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced two measures: First, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to start from November 1 Anti-dumping and countervailing investigations were conducted on solar-grade polysilicon produced in the European Union. Second, the Chinese government officially protested to the WTO, accusing the EU of subsidizing the main component industries of solar panels. China’s choice of these two counter-measures announced before the United States’ double-reverse “final ruling†and the official launch of the investigation in Europe, in fact, people can see that this is a tough measure that must be taken in advance to know the results. In dealing with the trade protectionism of the United States and the European Union, the Chinese government has always seemed to be lacking in strength. It seems that it is only at the stage of condemnation. The real measures are also on the sidelines, and they are waiting for opportunities based on the movements of the United States and Europe. If in-depth analysis is not difficult to find, this extreme embarrassing phenomenon is closely related to the irrational layout of the photovoltaic industry and the lack of key technologies. In terms of industrial layout, China's photovoltaics are focused on the manufacturing sector, and the terminal market is subject to people. For any industry, the terminal will always have the most say, and will always occupy the commanding heights of profit. This kind of deformed structure makes China's counter-measures not too fierce. Otherwise, once the real trade war strikes, the most affected and deepest is the Chinese PV companies. From this point of view, Chinese companies are even more afraid of trade wars. The relevant government departments are well aware of this, so more counter-measures remain in language. The lack of technology is to make China unable to fight the "trade war" and the lack of capital and weapons to fight trade wars. Most of China's PV equipment comes from overseas. The overseas equipment market share is large, but its price is relatively high. It can't talk about countervailing, and there is no anti-dumping. The advanced nature of foreign PV equipment is better than that of domestic similar equipment, so the market share is more technically excellent, and there is nothing wrong with it. By the same token, if China starts to fight back and forth from the polysilicon, it will also be a rat. The production capacity and output of China's polysilicon have been able to meet the existing demand, but the price is much higher than that of foreign countries. Once the high tax rate is adopted, it is only better than a few domestic polysilicon manufacturers, but it has pushed many middle and downstream enterprises into the heat. . After all, the price of foreign polysilicon products is extremely low, and the price of polysilicon is an important factor supporting the low-cost competition of battery component companies. From the above two points, the author believes that it is very difficult for the Chinese government and enterprises to turn the tide in the current situation, and can only find another way to minimize the adverse effects. Reflection 2: The company failed to get rid of the "Chinese-style" operating mode. The photovoltaic industry as an emerging industry, Chinese companies have a quantitative advantage in this respect, but unfortunately, the failure to get rid of the "Made in China" technology is low. nightmare. Taking the inverter industry as an example, the number of inverters in China's inverter industry is close to 300. The number of the inverters has caused the price to fall rapidly, and the profit margin of the inverter has fallen to the bottom overnight. From the price point of view, China's inverter industry is relatively low in price, and its price advantage makes it occupy a large share of the Chinese market, but it has encountered considerable resistance in opening up the international market. Because of the unique price advantage of Chinese products, foreign inverter products are difficult to enter the Chinese market, and Chinese products are also unable to enter the international market. There is no crossover between the two in terms of market share, so SMA is used as the inverter industry. Leading the boss, its market share has been far ahead, occupying half of the global inverter market. The market share of photovoltaic inverters released by the authoritative research organization IMSResearch shows that the 2011 solar power PV inverter shipments ranked fifth in the world, accounting for 3.4%; at the same time, Sunshine Power in 2011 global PV inverter Ranked 17th in the sales list, and its sales and shipments are disproportionate. Inverter giant SMA once said that it would rather face the danger of a decline in global market share and would not venture into the Chinese market because the Chinese market has no money to make. Through the previous sets of data, we can clearly know that the fundamental reason for China's inverter products to ride in China is the price advantage, not the quality and stability of the products. In terms of quality, China's inverters lack the consciousness of independent innovation. Most of the core components are imported from abroad, and the products are homogenized seriously. They are still in the stage of processing and manufacturing. Not only the inverter link, China's PV industry chain faces the same problem, that is, excessive emphasis on scale benefits, while neglecting innovation in product technology. The scale has indeed brought about a sharp drop in production costs, but it has not produced the corresponding end market, which has caused the embarrassing situation of the entire PV industry today. The author summarizes this operation mode into a typical Chinese-style operation mode. The same is true for the photovoltaic industry. It seems to be a large PV production country, but it is still the undisputed role of the world processing factory. Reflection 3: The political system is too special to promote the benign development of the industry. It is not too late for the Chinese government to support the application of photovoltaic products. However, these measures have not played a constructive role. Instead, they have been operating through black-box operations. The “Golden Sun†demonstration project and the PV benchmark on-grid price implemented last year are all important measures, but lack of corresponding supervision and fail to promote the sound development of the industry. The previous “Golden Sun†demonstration project mainly adopted the “pre-subsidy†approach, in which the project investors received subsidies before the project was started. The result is that as long as someone claims to be able to do photovoltaic power generation, a large amount of financial subsidies can be obtained. As a result, the amount of power generation is not regulated, and it is difficult to be motivated by being dismantled after being built. The on-grid price of photovoltaic benchmarks is even more problematic. The interest disputes between power grids, photovoltaic power generation enterprises and owners are not clear, which makes the grid have a negative attitude towards the grid-connected work of photovoltaic power plants. Even if there are grid-connected power cuts, arrears subsidies, etc. The various drawbacks, the downstream market has been slow to market. The problems in the downstream market of the photovoltaic industry ultimately boil down to problems in the political system. The final large-scale popularization of the photovoltaic industry is a complete system project, which requires the state to set up a special part to unify the jurisdiction. It is not like the present, although the various departments support their attitudes, they may face backward execution in the actual operation process. The embarrassing situation of pushing. The most important point of the system reform is how to do a good job in supervision, how to make the power station approval transparent, institutionalize the power grid integration, and legalize the power station subsidy. These matters that are related to the enthusiasm of the enterprise must be put in place. The ultimate benign development of the industry depends on market-based competition rather than state subsidies. No industry relies on national support to grow and develop. Therefore, for the current PV industry, it is much more important to rationalize the mechanism and strengthen supervision than to reduce the power generation cost in the manufacturing process. Reflection 4: The new energy industry lacks a unified plan at the national level. China's PV industry has today's results. The most deadly fault is the lack of unified planning at the national level, which has become a bargaining chip for local governments to show their achievements. Instead, when the industry crisis emerged, the relevant state departments and local governments began to "do something", which is a serious dereliction of duty in the government. Regardless of how the local government develops the photovoltaic industry, the most fundamental purpose is to stimulate GDP. Therefore, it is very important for scale, but it does not care too much about the long-term development of the company. The lack of long-term planning is the common problem of modern Chinese PV companies. Local governments have played a role in fueling this process. Of course, most companies are also stunned by the high-profit photovoltaic industry, and they do not have a rational view of their own development. However, as part of the state function, it is unforgivable to fail to detect this. Because the government should have played the role of macro-control, the overall control is its part. Unfortunately, the national level failed to make a unified plan to stop the overheating of local governments in a timely manner. When starting the downstream market, China's PV industry needs to learn these lessons and suggest that the country set up a unified, higher-level new energy component to unify the existing new energy industry. Ensure that the production capacity is at a reasonable stage, which can not only create competition, but also maintain the reasonable operation of the enterprise. On this basis, continue to guide independent innovation. In short, China's new energy road still needs to go on. The energy crisis, employment pressure, and economic transformation are all driving forces for us to accelerate. Only by profoundly rethinking the past and correcting the present can we make fewer mistakes in the future, or even make mistakes, in order to truly create an emerging industry that benefits all mankind. New energy is infinitely beautiful and the future is long.
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