The Voice of Russia website published an article on February 8 titled *"When Will China Come to the Fore?"* The piece references the latest edition of the *Military Balance Handbook*, authored by experts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). According to the report, military spending across Asian nations has risen sharply in recent years, intensifying regional tensions and shifting global power dynamics toward the Asia-Pacific. The article highlights the rapid development of China’s naval capabilities, with Kristian Le Meyer, a researcher at IISS, noting that China is actively expanding its blue-water fleet. By 2020, it may have three aircraft carrier battle groups, and by 2050, it could match the U.S. in terms of naval strength.
However, Vasily Kashin, an expert from Russia’s Center for Strategic and Technical Analysis, warns that long-term military forecasts are inherently uncertain. He emphasizes that technological advancements over the next decade could dramatically reshape maritime warfare, making predictions about naval power growth highly speculative.
The article also revisits Cold War-era theories from the 1960s, when Soviet military strategists believed that missile technology would render large surface ships obsolete. Khrushchev even claimed that U.S. aircraft carriers were prime targets for missiles. Yet, these predictions never came to fruition.
With modern technological progress, the balance is shifting again. China has deployed new anti-ship ballistic missiles, raising serious concerns about the survivability of U.S. aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific. Additionally, China is investing heavily in hypersonic weapons, which could allow for unpredictable flight paths and more effective anti-ship strikes. These developments are considered a key focus of China’s military modernization.
The article also mentions the J-20 stealth fighter, which could serve as a platform for launching cruise missiles. When combined with advanced anti-ship weapons and high-speed, long-range strike aircraft, such technologies might bring some 1960s military theories into reality.
Russian media suggests that protecting large surface warships from missile attacks is becoming increasingly difficult, which could revolutionize naval tactics. The experience of designing and operating U.S. aircraft carriers may lose relevance in the future. Russian analysts believe that both the U.S. and China are navigating similar challenges in adapting to new technologies and strategies.
If there is a major technological or strategic shift in the coming decade, China’s progress could accelerate just as rapidly as that of the U.S. While the U.S. still leads in advanced technology, China has shown strong potential by identifying promising scientific fields and investing heavily in them. Starting from scratch, China is building its navy without being constrained by past traditions or previous investments, allowing for more flexible and innovative planning.
The naval arms race in Asia is expected to surprise many in the near future, as both countries continue to push the boundaries of military innovation.
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