"This is a variety that I haven't seen before. It has been added to the self-selection column of the market software, and I have to pay attention to it every day." Senior futures trader Ms. Zhang told China Securities Journal. This variety, which was quickly countered by the corner of the commodity market in Ms. Zhang’s eyes, is the asphalt futures.
China Securities Journal reporter recently found that the asphalt futures contract, which was originally called "small asphalt" due to inactive trading, has recently become popular. It has soared from the turnover of 100,000 hands in the middle of last year to the recent 2 million hands. It also recorded a turnover record of more than 6 million hands.
According to industry insiders, although this is related to the contract characteristics and fundamental changes of asphalt futures, it cannot be ignored that the violent fluctuation of crude oil promotes the activeness of asphalt futures similar to the blood, and the shortage of domestic crude oil futures makes asphalt futures Temporarily assumed part of its investment and hedging needs. According to another introduction, the current rebound in crude oil is considerable. In the atmosphere of commodity bargain-hunting, many investors are using this variety to participate in the red envelope market where oil prices are rising.
Counterattack drama: "Little asphalt" changed to "Phoenix"
After the Spring Festival in 2016, the commodity market ushered in a long-lost spring. In addition to the soaring price of “ferrous metals†represented by iron ore, the rebound in crude oil prices is also in full swing. Even the asphalt futures, which were not actively traded in the industry, are also booming.
According to Li Shan, a researcher at Shiyuan Jinxing, only in March this year, the cumulative volume of the main contract of the petroleum asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has exceeded 37 million. On the one hand, because the asphalt listed on the domestic futures market is “petroleum asphaltâ€, which is a product of crude oil processing, it has a great correlation with the international crude oil price trend. The surge in short-term oil prices has become a direct cause of the aggressiveness of asphalt trading and cross-species arbitrage trading.
On the other hand, from the current fundamental situation, there will be significant changes in the investment side this year, and the government will continue to increase fixed investment, including road asphalt pavement maintenance and upgrading. These will undoubtedly have a direct impact on market demand. Therefore, the situation of high asphalt price fluctuations and active transactions is expected to continue.
Chen Jingyi, a researcher at Huatai Futures crude oil, also pointed out that as the price of crude oil in the previous period continued to fall, the atmosphere of bargain-hunting in the market became increasingly strong. However, there were relatively few channels for domestic crude oil investment, and crude oil futures were not listed. The funds tend to consider the downstream products of crude oil. It is a kind of energy and chemical industry, in which asphalt is a direct downstream product of crude oil, which has a strong correlation with crude oil price. Therefore, it does not exclude the use of asphalt as an alternative configuration of crude oil.
Fang Xiaozhong Futures Researcher Yan Xiaoying said that since the asphalt futures trading has been hot since the beginning of the year, on the one hand, the asphalt price has continued to fall, the lowest point has approached the cost line, attracting a large number of long-term funds into the market at the low level; on the other hand, as the crude oil as a whole still maintains a downward trend, Although it rebounds in the short term, it may continue to fall in the future, and it is likely to drive the asphalt to continue to decline. Some insurance policies will enter the market, and the registered warehouse receipts will continue to increase. The short-term differences in the market are more serious, prompting the continuous increase in the volume and volume of the previous period.
“Asphalt futures is a small contract, 10 tons/hand, which is easy to be active.†Xu Qigang, an asphalt analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, added that most of the main institutions now do use asphalt futures as crude oil futures, and there are also many bargain-hunters. It is worth noting that although the asphalt market is positively correlated with crude oil, in addition to crude oil, asphalt is also affected by the off-season, supply and demand changes, policies, etc., and should be distinguished.
The hottest trade: financial predators
"When the streets are full of blood, it is the opportunity to enter the market to buy goods." This is the investment philosophy of the eighteenth century. It is also one of the criteria for the entry of financial tycoons into the market. This simple standard has given birth to the hottest investment strategy of the moment - the bottom crude oil.
Before February of this year, energy stocks were almost one of the worst performers in the US stock market. According to Bloomberg data, in the first two months of this year, an index measuring the performance of 163 US energy companies fell more than 6%.
However, the first person to eat crabs in despair may be the stock god. Warren Buffett has repeatedly increased his holdings in Phillips 66, one of the largest independent refiners in the United States. According to "Wall Street News", Buffett spent a total of 832 million US dollars to increase the company in January. In less than two months, the stock gods used the shining record to give the market a value investment class.
There are also many investment predators who also love energy stocks. Soros Fund Management recently reported its energy industry investment deployment in the fourth quarter of last year. During the disclosure period, he increased its holdings of Baker Hughes, the world's third largest oilfield service provider, and oil and gas pipeline operator Kinder Morgan, holding more than 680,000 shares and approximately 50,000 respectively. Shares, and maintain the oil and gas producer Energy XXI positions at 500,000 shares. In addition, David Tepper, a hedge fund manager known for his greed in times of crisis, is also betting on the energy sector.
The Wall Street Journal report also shows that the largest initial public offering (IPO) transaction in the US so far this year is not from a profitable well-known company, but a "blank check" company that will smuggle oil and gas assets. People familiar with the matter said that Silver Run Acquisition Corp. issued shares at a price of $10 per share, expanding the funding to $450 million. The offering documents show that the company wants to buy oil and gas assets on dips. This transaction has once again confirmed the interest of funds in the bottom-selling oil and gas business.
"According to the current statistics, the US crude oil futures market began in December last year, and the daily contract volume increased from the previous 400,000 hands to the current 600,000 hands. With the oil price downturn, institutional investors are obviously compared with Ordinary individual investors have shown greater interest in positions," Li Shan said.
Hedge fund managers continue to increase their net long position in US crude oil futures and options. The data showed that as of the week of March 8, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil and London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) crude oil futures and options net long position increased by 35,651 hands to 137,983 hands.
In the short-term, the international oil price has rebounded by nearly 35% from the low point of 26.05 US dollars / barrel, and now it is under pressure near the psychological barrier of 40 US dollars / barrel. Some insiders suggest that domestic ordinary investors can wait for the short-term to stabilize and then enter the market again. If they are mid-line investments, they need to open positions in batches.
"Crude oil prices are at a low level, and the funds for bargain-hunting in the international market are indeed quite active. It can be seen from the record of the management of the US crude oil ETF, the US oil fund." Chen Jingyi pointed out that although the current oil price exceeded that of two years ago. The price of 100 US dollars / barrel has fallen by nearly two-thirds, but the oil market fundamentals are still weak in the short term. After the previous round of rapid rebound, the current price does not have a margin of safety, crude oil, refined oil stocks Pressure, as well as the oil pressure of the oil producers, are still important factors in suppressing oil prices. In the medium and long term, oil prices are also more likely to fluctuate at the bottom. They are not optimistic about the trend of rising stocks for a long period of time.
Yan Xiaoying said that although the oil price has reached the bottom area, the space for further decline is limited, but the bargain-hunting is not necessarily valuable. Since the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil has not improved significantly, oil prices are difficult to get out of the low position in a short time, and it is likely to be in the future. Maintain a low level for a long time.
Chen Dong, a researcher at Baocheng Futures, also pointed out that in February this year, international crude oil prices ushered in a stabilizing trend. On the one hand, oil-producing countries announced that they would freeze production capacity. On the other hand, the number of US oil rigs continued to decline. Excessive levels of excess have led to a rapid rise in expectations of more oil prices in the market, as sovereign funds, hedge funds and other institutional investors have changed their minds to increase net long positions in crude oil futures and options. However, after entering mid-March, the current situation of high crude oil inventories in the United States and the prospect of confusing oil-producing countries have weakened investors' bullish expectations and reduced the willingness to increase net long positions. At present, WTI's crude oil futures price has approached 40 US dollars / barrel. If there is a lack of clearer and more favorable factors to guide the decline, there may be short-term opportunities for the decline. However, in the medium and long term, the bottom-end characteristics of crude oil are clear, and the bottom line may need to wait for short-term. Better intervention opportunities.
Alternative layout: the "shadow legend" of crude oil
At present, China's crude oil futures are still in a state of vacancy, but it is hard to participate in the savvy investors. They have intervened from different channels, but the same way, the basic concept is more consistent: the configuration of the "shadow" products closely following crude oil .
Insiders pointed out that China has a variety of wealth management products and investment funds. The targets of these investment projects are mainly crude oil or index funds closely related to crude oil, and they can also obtain investment income as the oil price rises. Related products can be found in banks and private wealth management. However, investors also need to distinguish the targets that the ETF actually tracks, in part to track foreign oil company stock indices, and some directly invest in overseas crude oil ETFs.
"After the rebound of crude oil, a certain oil and gas fund in China will follow very clearly. It will be red when crude oil is red, and green if it is crude." The above-mentioned futures investor Ms. Zhang said.
In addition, participation in energy and chemical products in the futures market is also one of the investment channels. However, in addition to the asphalt futures, other chemical products have strong independence and are affected by many other factors. The difference with the crude oil market is quite different and may not be the best “shadowâ€.
Regardless of those “shadow†channels, investors should be prepared for the sharp rise and fall of crude oil, especially under high leverage. For example, investors in the spot oil electronic platform are also taking 20-25 times leverage in addition to the oil price shock, and the risk is self-evident. At present, some non-compliant trading platforms have closed down after the risk exposure.
The oil market reform, which is being actively promoted, gives investors who want to invest directly in crude oil futures more expectation. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said in an interview with China Securities Journal that the urgency and necessity of listing crude oil futures were not affected by the fall in oil prices.
"China's crude oil futures have not been launched due to the special nature of their own important strategic resources and the frequent occurrence of financial market risk events in the past two years, but based on the strategic considerations of competing pricing power and domestic refined oil market reform, The introduction of crude oil futures is inevitable and urgent. It is expected that the country will introduce crude oil futures in a timely manner after considering a series of factors.†Xiao Xiaoying also pointed out that although China's crude oil futures have not yet been listed, investors can open accounts in Europe and America through qualified intermediary channels. Participated in WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures trading.
China Securities Journal reporter recently found that the asphalt futures contract, which was originally called "small asphalt" due to inactive trading, has recently become popular. It has soared from the turnover of 100,000 hands in the middle of last year to the recent 2 million hands. It also recorded a turnover record of more than 6 million hands.
According to industry insiders, although this is related to the contract characteristics and fundamental changes of asphalt futures, it cannot be ignored that the violent fluctuation of crude oil promotes the activeness of asphalt futures similar to the blood, and the shortage of domestic crude oil futures makes asphalt futures Temporarily assumed part of its investment and hedging needs. According to another introduction, the current rebound in crude oil is considerable. In the atmosphere of commodity bargain-hunting, many investors are using this variety to participate in the red envelope market where oil prices are rising.
Counterattack drama: "Little asphalt" changed to "Phoenix"
After the Spring Festival in 2016, the commodity market ushered in a long-lost spring. In addition to the soaring price of “ferrous metals†represented by iron ore, the rebound in crude oil prices is also in full swing. Even the asphalt futures, which were not actively traded in the industry, are also booming.
According to Li Shan, a researcher at Shiyuan Jinxing, only in March this year, the cumulative volume of the main contract of the petroleum asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has exceeded 37 million. On the one hand, because the asphalt listed on the domestic futures market is “petroleum asphaltâ€, which is a product of crude oil processing, it has a great correlation with the international crude oil price trend. The surge in short-term oil prices has become a direct cause of the aggressiveness of asphalt trading and cross-species arbitrage trading.
On the other hand, from the current fundamental situation, there will be significant changes in the investment side this year, and the government will continue to increase fixed investment, including road asphalt pavement maintenance and upgrading. These will undoubtedly have a direct impact on market demand. Therefore, the situation of high asphalt price fluctuations and active transactions is expected to continue.
Chen Jingyi, a researcher at Huatai Futures crude oil, also pointed out that as the price of crude oil in the previous period continued to fall, the atmosphere of bargain-hunting in the market became increasingly strong. However, there were relatively few channels for domestic crude oil investment, and crude oil futures were not listed. The funds tend to consider the downstream products of crude oil. It is a kind of energy and chemical industry, in which asphalt is a direct downstream product of crude oil, which has a strong correlation with crude oil price. Therefore, it does not exclude the use of asphalt as an alternative configuration of crude oil.
Fang Xiaozhong Futures Researcher Yan Xiaoying said that since the asphalt futures trading has been hot since the beginning of the year, on the one hand, the asphalt price has continued to fall, the lowest point has approached the cost line, attracting a large number of long-term funds into the market at the low level; on the other hand, as the crude oil as a whole still maintains a downward trend, Although it rebounds in the short term, it may continue to fall in the future, and it is likely to drive the asphalt to continue to decline. Some insurance policies will enter the market, and the registered warehouse receipts will continue to increase. The short-term differences in the market are more serious, prompting the continuous increase in the volume and volume of the previous period.
“Asphalt futures is a small contract, 10 tons/hand, which is easy to be active.†Xu Qigang, an asphalt analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, added that most of the main institutions now do use asphalt futures as crude oil futures, and there are also many bargain-hunters. It is worth noting that although the asphalt market is positively correlated with crude oil, in addition to crude oil, asphalt is also affected by the off-season, supply and demand changes, policies, etc., and should be distinguished.
The hottest trade: financial predators
"When the streets are full of blood, it is the opportunity to enter the market to buy goods." This is the investment philosophy of the eighteenth century. It is also one of the criteria for the entry of financial tycoons into the market. This simple standard has given birth to the hottest investment strategy of the moment - the bottom crude oil.
Before February of this year, energy stocks were almost one of the worst performers in the US stock market. According to Bloomberg data, in the first two months of this year, an index measuring the performance of 163 US energy companies fell more than 6%.
However, the first person to eat crabs in despair may be the stock god. Warren Buffett has repeatedly increased his holdings in Phillips 66, one of the largest independent refiners in the United States. According to "Wall Street News", Buffett spent a total of 832 million US dollars to increase the company in January. In less than two months, the stock gods used the shining record to give the market a value investment class.
There are also many investment predators who also love energy stocks. Soros Fund Management recently reported its energy industry investment deployment in the fourth quarter of last year. During the disclosure period, he increased its holdings of Baker Hughes, the world's third largest oilfield service provider, and oil and gas pipeline operator Kinder Morgan, holding more than 680,000 shares and approximately 50,000 respectively. Shares, and maintain the oil and gas producer Energy XXI positions at 500,000 shares. In addition, David Tepper, a hedge fund manager known for his greed in times of crisis, is also betting on the energy sector.
The Wall Street Journal report also shows that the largest initial public offering (IPO) transaction in the US so far this year is not from a profitable well-known company, but a "blank check" company that will smuggle oil and gas assets. People familiar with the matter said that Silver Run Acquisition Corp. issued shares at a price of $10 per share, expanding the funding to $450 million. The offering documents show that the company wants to buy oil and gas assets on dips. This transaction has once again confirmed the interest of funds in the bottom-selling oil and gas business.
"According to the current statistics, the US crude oil futures market began in December last year, and the daily contract volume increased from the previous 400,000 hands to the current 600,000 hands. With the oil price downturn, institutional investors are obviously compared with Ordinary individual investors have shown greater interest in positions," Li Shan said.
Hedge fund managers continue to increase their net long position in US crude oil futures and options. The data showed that as of the week of March 8, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil and London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) crude oil futures and options net long position increased by 35,651 hands to 137,983 hands.
In the short-term, the international oil price has rebounded by nearly 35% from the low point of 26.05 US dollars / barrel, and now it is under pressure near the psychological barrier of 40 US dollars / barrel. Some insiders suggest that domestic ordinary investors can wait for the short-term to stabilize and then enter the market again. If they are mid-line investments, they need to open positions in batches.
"Crude oil prices are at a low level, and the funds for bargain-hunting in the international market are indeed quite active. It can be seen from the record of the management of the US crude oil ETF, the US oil fund." Chen Jingyi pointed out that although the current oil price exceeded that of two years ago. The price of 100 US dollars / barrel has fallen by nearly two-thirds, but the oil market fundamentals are still weak in the short term. After the previous round of rapid rebound, the current price does not have a margin of safety, crude oil, refined oil stocks Pressure, as well as the oil pressure of the oil producers, are still important factors in suppressing oil prices. In the medium and long term, oil prices are also more likely to fluctuate at the bottom. They are not optimistic about the trend of rising stocks for a long period of time.
Yan Xiaoying said that although the oil price has reached the bottom area, the space for further decline is limited, but the bargain-hunting is not necessarily valuable. Since the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil has not improved significantly, oil prices are difficult to get out of the low position in a short time, and it is likely to be in the future. Maintain a low level for a long time.
Chen Dong, a researcher at Baocheng Futures, also pointed out that in February this year, international crude oil prices ushered in a stabilizing trend. On the one hand, oil-producing countries announced that they would freeze production capacity. On the other hand, the number of US oil rigs continued to decline. Excessive levels of excess have led to a rapid rise in expectations of more oil prices in the market, as sovereign funds, hedge funds and other institutional investors have changed their minds to increase net long positions in crude oil futures and options. However, after entering mid-March, the current situation of high crude oil inventories in the United States and the prospect of confusing oil-producing countries have weakened investors' bullish expectations and reduced the willingness to increase net long positions. At present, WTI's crude oil futures price has approached 40 US dollars / barrel. If there is a lack of clearer and more favorable factors to guide the decline, there may be short-term opportunities for the decline. However, in the medium and long term, the bottom-end characteristics of crude oil are clear, and the bottom line may need to wait for short-term. Better intervention opportunities.
Alternative layout: the "shadow legend" of crude oil
At present, China's crude oil futures are still in a state of vacancy, but it is hard to participate in the savvy investors. They have intervened from different channels, but the same way, the basic concept is more consistent: the configuration of the "shadow" products closely following crude oil .
Insiders pointed out that China has a variety of wealth management products and investment funds. The targets of these investment projects are mainly crude oil or index funds closely related to crude oil, and they can also obtain investment income as the oil price rises. Related products can be found in banks and private wealth management. However, investors also need to distinguish the targets that the ETF actually tracks, in part to track foreign oil company stock indices, and some directly invest in overseas crude oil ETFs.
"After the rebound of crude oil, a certain oil and gas fund in China will follow very clearly. It will be red when crude oil is red, and green if it is crude." The above-mentioned futures investor Ms. Zhang said.
In addition, participation in energy and chemical products in the futures market is also one of the investment channels. However, in addition to the asphalt futures, other chemical products have strong independence and are affected by many other factors. The difference with the crude oil market is quite different and may not be the best “shadowâ€.
Regardless of those “shadow†channels, investors should be prepared for the sharp rise and fall of crude oil, especially under high leverage. For example, investors in the spot oil electronic platform are also taking 20-25 times leverage in addition to the oil price shock, and the risk is self-evident. At present, some non-compliant trading platforms have closed down after the risk exposure.
The oil market reform, which is being actively promoted, gives investors who want to invest directly in crude oil futures more expectation. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said in an interview with China Securities Journal that the urgency and necessity of listing crude oil futures were not affected by the fall in oil prices.
"China's crude oil futures have not been launched due to the special nature of their own important strategic resources and the frequent occurrence of financial market risk events in the past two years, but based on the strategic considerations of competing pricing power and domestic refined oil market reform, The introduction of crude oil futures is inevitable and urgent. It is expected that the country will introduce crude oil futures in a timely manner after considering a series of factors.†Xiao Xiaoying also pointed out that although China's crude oil futures have not yet been listed, investors can open accounts in Europe and America through qualified intermediary channels. Participated in WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures trading.
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