As winter approaches, coal demand in major consuming countries has started to pick up, leading to a rebound in effective coal demand. Since September, international coal prices at three key ports have been on an upward trend. However, after nearly two months of volatility and changes in regional supply and demand dynamics, coal prices have fallen in the current period.
As of the week ending November 8, thermal coal prices at Newcastle Port in Australia closed at $84.43 per ton, down by $0.16 from the previous week, representing a 0.19% decline. In South Africa, the Richards Bay Coal Index ended the week at $83.92 per ton, a drop of $2.67 or 3.08% compared to the prior week. Meanwhile, the ARA thermal coal price index in Europe closed at $83.69 per ton, down $2.38 or 2.77% from the previous week. All three major international coal ports saw a decline this week, with European prices showing the most significant drop over two consecutive weeks.
The decline in Australian coal prices was relatively modest, despite the overall downward trend. This is largely due to the recovery of China’s thermal coal market, which remains the largest importer of coal. Strong demand from China, along with stable demand from Japan and South Korea, helped cushion the impact of the global price drop. Additionally, New South Wales recently announced plans to sell the lease rights for the Newcastle port, which could potentially increase export costs and further strain local coal enterprises.
In South Africa and Australia, strong winds disrupted coal shipments to European markets. Once the weather improved, exports resumed, but weak demand in coal-consuming regions led to a temporary oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices in both South Africa and Europe.
Currently, the average coal prices at the three major international ports remain above $80 per ton, higher than levels seen in August and September. If the recent decline continues, combined with rising domestic demand, imported coal may see increased interest. However, with domestic coal production still exceeding demand, both domestic and imported coal are expected to experience a slow-paced recovery during the heating season.
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