As winter approaches in major coal-consuming countries, demand for coal has started to pick up. Since September, international coal prices at the three key ports have shown a steady upward trend. However, after nearly two months of fluctuation and shifting supply-demand dynamics, prices have now declined in the current period.
As of the week ending November 8, thermal coal prices at Newcastle Port in Australia closed at $84.43 per ton, down by $0.16 from the previous week, marking a 0.19% decrease. In South Africa, the Richards Bay Coal Index dropped to $83.92 per ton, a fall of $2.67 or 3.08% compared to the prior week. Meanwhile, the ARA thermal coal price index in Europe settled at $83.69 per ton, declining by $2.38 or 2.77% from the previous week. All three major international coal hubs experienced a decline, with European prices showing a more significant drop over the past two weeks.
The relatively stable price movement in Australia can be attributed to the recovery of China’s thermal coal market, which is the largest importer of coal. Strong demand from China, along with stable consumption in Japan and South Korea, has helped support Australian coal prices. Additionally, New South Wales announced plans to sell the lease rights of the Newcastle port, which could boost export prices and increase pressure on local coal companies.
In South Africa and Australia, strong winds initially disrupted coal shipments to Europe. Once the weather improved, exports resumed, but weak demand in European coal markets led to a surplus, putting downward pressure on prices. This situation has continued to affect both South African and European coal markets.
Despite the recent decline, the overall prices at the three major international ports remain above $80 per ton, higher than in August and September. If the downward trend continues, combined with rising domestic demand, imported coal may see increased interest. However, with domestic coal production still exceeding demand, both local and imported coal are expected to experience a slow-paced recovery during the heating season.
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