At present, many people believe that the challenges confronting China's photovoltaic (PV) industry are dire, even suggesting the possibility of a crisis. While we must remain realistic about the current state of the industry, it’s important to avoid exaggeration. The PV sector is not as dire as some media outlets make it out to be. For instance, during the severe financial crisis of 2008, the global PV industry still managed to grow its installed capacity by 49%. By 2009 and 2010, the installed capacity surpassed 70%. In the first half of 2012, global PV installed capacity grew by another 35%. These figures highlight that despite a sluggish global economy, the PV market remains robust, and the industry's growth trajectory continues to hold strong.
The decline in PV product prices is not alarming but rather a natural progression. Achieving grid parity for solar energy has long been the industry's goal, and it’s a critical step toward large-scale adoption. However, the rapid pace of development has created some challenges. The industry advanced so quickly that the supply chain hasn’t had time to adapt, leading to oversupply and falling prices. Some have humorously described this as building "five years' worth of progress in just one year."
In summary, the overall market size of the PV industry hasn't contracted, nor has the fundamental direction of development shifted. So, where does the issue lie?
When the Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Renewable Energy was drafted in 2003, our aim was to reach an installed capacity of 2 million kilowatts by 2020. Initially, we anticipated that by 2020, the cost of PV-generated electricity would drop to around 1.5 yuan per kWh, and by 2030, it would fall to about 1 yuan per kWh. By 2011, however, we already achieved a price of 1.15 yuan per kWh, completing in a few short years what was expected to take decades. This accelerated growth has left us without a clear path forward. As someone once put it online, "taking the road of others so they can’t follow."
Faced with this predicament, the PV industry must recalibrate. We need to control the pace of development to ensure sustainability. The future lies in balancing innovation with caution, ensuring steady progress while addressing the challenges of overcapacity and pricing pressures.
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