At present, many people believe that the challenges confronting China's photovoltaic industry are quite severe, and some even think the situation is dire. However, we need to face this industry with a practical mindset. The photovoltaic sector is not as bleak as certain media outlets make it out to be. For instance, during the global financial crisis of 2008, the installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry still grew by 49%. By 2009 and 2010, the installed capacity surged over 70%. Even in the first half of 2012, despite a sluggish global economy, the installed capacity rose by 35%. These figures clearly demonstrate that the photovoltaic market remains robust, and the development trajectory of the industry is sound.
The decline in photovoltaic product prices is indeed an inevitable trend. Achieving grid parity for photovoltaics is the industry’s ultimate goal, and it is also essential for its widespread adoption. However, the rapid advancement of the photovoltaic industry has led to a pace that the supply chain has struggled to keep up with. Some might say it’s like "completing a five-year journey in just one year."
In summary, while the scale of the market continues to grow and the direction of development remains correct, there are still issues within the photovoltaic industry itself. When the Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Renewable Energy was established in 2003, the target was to reach an installed capacity of 2 million kilowatts by 2020. It was hoped that by 2020, the cost of photovoltaic electricity would drop to around 1.5 yuan per kWh, and by 2030, it would fall further to approximately 1 yuan per kWh. By 2011, however, the price had already dropped to 1.15 yuan, meaning we’ve essentially achieved our five-year goals in just one year. This accelerated progress has left us at a crossroads, where future paths seem limited. As they say online, "taking the road of others leaves them nowhere to go." Given this predicament, the photovoltaic industry must undergo adjustments, and we must carefully manage the speed and rhythm of our growth.
The current challenge lies in balancing the rapid advancements with sustainable development. While the achievements are commendable, it’s crucial to ensure long-term stability and avoid overextension. Only then can the photovoltaic industry continue to thrive and contribute positively to the renewable energy landscape.
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