On December 13, Jason TASI, chief analyst at Solarzoom, a leading domestic solar market research firm, spoke in Shanghai, highlighting the mixed emotions within the PV industry. Despite challenges faced by many solar companies, the global photovoltaic (PV) market continued to expand in 2013. Solarzoom forecasts that total global installed capacity will increase by between 30GW and 41GW this year.
Looking back at 2012, Solarzoom estimates that the global PV installation reached around 30GW. Germany, China, and the United States were the top three countries in terms of installed capacity, with Italy taking the fourth spot. Last year, Italy alone accounted for 60% of the global PV market. However, both the German and Italian markets saw slower growth in 2013, yet they still held more than 40% of the global market share.
Breaking down the 2012 figures, Germany contributed 26%, Italy 10%, the U.S. 13%, China 16%, and Japan 7%. According to Solarzoom’s analysis, the U.S. market underperformed expectations, while Eastern Europe and India showed steady growth, slightly outpacing projections. Meanwhile, the Chinese market exceeded expectations, with an installed capacity of 4.5–4.8GW.
Looking ahead to 2013, Jason TASI noted that after a year of losses and production halts, many PV companies lacking sufficient cash flow would likely shut down operations and face debt collection from banks. He predicted that the market would reach its peak in the first quarter of 2013, with clearer signs of recovery in the second quarter as production capacity continued to shrink. This contraction, he said, could mark an inflection point for the industry.
TASI also commented on price trends, stating: “In 2011, price cuts squeezed profits; in 2012, they eroded gross margins. By 2013, further price reductions will have to rely on cost cuts driven by technological advancements, which means the pace of price declines will slow down.â€
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