The World Bank and the Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center recently hosted the "2013 Global Economic Outlook" conference in Shanghai. Hans Timo, director of the World Bank's Development Forecasting Bureau, highlighted that while the global economy has resumed its growth path, the pace remains slower than pre-crisis levels. According to his analysis, global GDP is expected to grow by approximately 2.2% this year, 3.0% in 2014, and 3.3% in 2015.
Timo noted that China has largely recovered from the global financial crisis and continues to show strong economic momentum. However, he pointed out that current challenges are more related to domestic factors such as supply-side issues and productivity. Additionally, he suggested that previous policy measures were too lenient, and the Chinese government may need to recalibrate its fiscal and monetary strategies accordingly.
Looking at China’s performance in the latter part of last year, the World Bank projected a GDP growth rate of around 8% for this year. Despite some uncertainties, the bank still believes that China's growth will remain in the high range, between 7.5% and 8%. Timo emphasized that China should gradually adapt to a new era of slower but more sustainable growth, and there is no need to panic over the slowdown.
He further stressed that the Chinese government should focus more on the quality of growth rather than just the speed. Transitioning toward green and sustainable development is essential, as many of the policies that fueled past growth are not viable in the long term. For instance, the heavy reliance on investment-driven growth cannot be maintained indefinitely. Therefore, China must prepare itself for a future with slower but more balanced economic expansion.
On a broader scale, Timo noted that although global growth remains modest, the economic outlook has improved compared to a year ago, with the world returning to a growth trajectory. However, several risks remain. The drop in commodity prices has negatively impacted exporting nations, while the effects of Japan's quantitative easing policy on other economies are still uncertain. Additionally, the U.S. may begin to taper its stimulus program, but the Federal Reserve lacks experience in managing the potential fallout, making it difficult to predict the impact on interest rates and the overall economy.
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