July economic data is still low 徘徊

In the latest financial survey, economists from 20 major financial and research institutions have released their consensus forecast for China’s macroeconomic data in July. The findings indicate that the economy remains in a relatively subdued state, with key indicators such as investment, industrial activity, and consumption expected to remain stable or show slight improvements compared to June. However, the growth of imports and exports is anticipated to see a more significant upward trend. According to the survey, the average predicted GDP growth rate for July stands at 8.9%, matching the actual figure recorded in June. While this suggests stability, there is some variation among forecasts, with the highest prediction reaching 9.2% and the lowest at 8.7%. This range reflects the uncertainty surrounding the current economic environment. For fixed asset investment, the average forecast for the first seven months of the year was 19.9%, slightly lower than the 20.1% growth recorded in June. Despite this small decline, the predictions remained closely aligned, with the highest estimate at 20.2% and the lowest at 18.5%. On the consumer side, the forecast for the total retail sales of consumer goods in July was set at 13.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the June figure. This suggests a modest improvement in domestic consumption. Meanwhile, the outlook for trade performance is more encouraging. Export growth is projected to rise sharply, with an estimated rate of 3.6%—a significant jump of 5.6 percentage points from June. Similarly, import growth is expected to increase by 6.8 percentage points, reaching 3.7% in July. These figures signal a potential rebound in China's external trade activity, which could provide a much-needed boost to overall economic performance. Overall, while the economy continues to face challenges, the recent forecasts suggest that certain sectors may be showing signs of recovery, particularly in trade and investment. Analysts will be closely watching how these trends evolve in the coming months.

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